At best he catches the nilla, if he even lives. Odds say that he probably doesn't even do that. He is more useful as a day one clear, which will then probably be nightkilled, ensuring the gov lives to 5 way at least
deletedalmost 10 years
Mafia ccing is great too. Instead of a 1/3rd lynch day one, you get either a 2/5ths lynch or a 1/2 lynch depending on the mafia players
deletedalmost 10 years
nah
deletedalmost 10 years
bro cop can't be lynched either, not without putting up a fight. why not let mafia cc him and increase ur odds from 2/5 to 1/2? they wont cc if he claims straight out, they'll just kill him
deletedalmost 10 years
If cop claims your chances of a day one mafia lynch rise from 1/3rd to nearly 50%
deletedalmost 10 years
Right, you sacrifice an almost certainly worthless report in exchange for the odds of lynching mafia on day one to increase from 2/6 (1/3rd) to 2/5 (gov can't be lynched day one)
It's objectively worth it. There is no argument against it.
deletedalmost 10 years
if cop claims at the beginning, there's no cc. there's no fluked lock-ins between 1 mafia and 1 town giving a 50/50. odds of lynching mafia stay the same otherwise but for this loss which seems like it'd be pretty significant tbqh. it potentially gives the cop back a report during the dayphase basically to not claim start of day
deletedalmost 10 years
If they don't cc towns EV rises. If they do cc, towns EV rises. You've got to be trolling
deletedalmost 10 years
So? If they do cc, better for town than if cop stayed hidden. If they don't cc, better for town than if cop stayed hidden. Either way, it's better for the cop to claim
deletedalmost 10 years
mafia shouldn't cc. mafia should only cc if cop hasn't claimed and they're being lynched. otherwise they just kill the cop and take their 2/6 chance of being lynched
deletedalmost 10 years
So what? That is not at all my point. If mafia ccs, the odds are automatically higher than they are now. If mafia does not cc, the chances of lynching mafia day one increase automatically. There is no benefit to the cop staying hidden
deletedalmost 10 years
oh there is. doesn't matter. just readjust odds and ur still wrong. 1/7*1/6 = 1 in 42 games both prs get outed d1
deletedalmost 10 years
You're dumb dude. There's 7 people in o2r dawn start, and we're assuming there's a clear because cop claimed. If mafia ccs, a-okay. You're going to 3 way, and it's probably 3 way with a clear
deletedalmost 10 years
IT'S OPTIMAL FOR TOWN THAT MAFIA CC SONSE LOL?? WHAT ARE U NOT UNDERSTANDING HERE, I'M LEAVING LOL
deletedalmost 10 years
there's a 1/7 chance sonse, and that's pretty low. 1/8 chance gov gets nailed, 1/7 on top of that he nails cop. that's a 1 in 56 chance. ur not going to see many of those games.
worst that's probably going to happen game-to-game is that a pr gets outed, which is what u want to START with
deletedalmost 10 years
Exactly.
deletedalmost 10 years
if mafia ccs, u have a 1/2 d1 instead of a 2/5. it's optimal that mafia cc. cop claiming start of day shuts that down tho
deletedalmost 10 years
Well there's a 1/6 chance of cop getting OT'd to if gov gets lynched, for instance. That's impossible if cop claims, and if they are cc'd (which you think was optimal) the gov never loses the OT. Okay, I'm done. You're trolling.
deletedalmost 10 years
If mafia ccs, which you already said is optimal for mafia, the odds are automatically better than 62/37
deletedalmost 10 years
ur simple math is wrong af and probably assumes prs can get lynched and not just outed or something dumb like that. i'm playing the odds of prs NOT GETTING OUTED, which are the only odds to be played as far as prs are concerned
deletedalmost 10 years
You're objectively wrong, but okay
deletedalmost 10 years
no they don't. it's still 2/5. cop or gov aren't going to be lynched if they get outed. if cop does, maybe he gets cc'd and lynched, but it's for a mafia. hard to say offhand how the odds of that figure tbh, but the lock-in of a cc might give the town a better chance of happening on mafia than just normally going through the 2/5. i'd say it's better not to claim anyway, just by intuition
deletedalmost 10 years
If cop claims, he cannot be OT'd to. There are so many good reasons to do this
deletedalmost 10 years
It's simple math dude. What happened to your medals?
deletedalmost 10 years
The odds of lynching mafia on day one go up the second cop claims. If cop is cc'd, you are guaranteed a 3 way with over a 50% chance of a clear which is already much better than this setup is doing now.
deletedalmost 10 years
i am going to concede and say cop should just claim tbh, even tho it doesn't really add anything. enjoy, sonseray
