At best he catches the nilla, if he even lives. Odds say that he probably doesn't even do that. He is more useful as a day one clear, which will then probably be nightkilled, ensuring the gov lives to 5 way at least
deletedalmost 10 years
the ev is a dumb thing to reference then sonse. there is a whole lot more to the mechanics of people being prs than just discluding them from the ev if they're gov
i was talking about vdli there bro. nice knee-jerking failure for comprehension u have there =p
deletedalmost 10 years
The EV is the estimated value of the setup if the votes are placed at random
deletedalmost 10 years
belovedprincess2m 2s i'm not doing the math rn dave, but if u lynched on a 1/8, first off u have worse odds of hitting mafia, second u force urself to lynch on a 1/6 next day instead of a 1/5, which is worse odds again etc.etc... town winchance in vdli decreases hugely with the new meteor meta
Sirius. Moron. There are seven people in this setup, not eight people. Two of those people would be clear assuming this strategy.
deletedalmost 10 years
what even is the ev sonse? u are literally mathematically wrong here bro lol
deletedalmost 10 years
lynching d1 if bp is unhit is better than not lynching d1 and just letting bp get nailed tho. but both are unfair and not what the setup used to be to have its even stats
deletedalmost 10 years
I didn't calculate the exact EV (and I won't, but if someone else wants to do it I am very confident that I'm right about it), but you can tell that it is higher than 62/37 by virtue of all scenarios leading to higher odds than 37 percent. I'm using the EV as an example because the EV assumes that the votes are random, which it is best to assume when finding optimal play imo
deletedalmost 10 years
i'm not doing the math rn dave, but if u lynched on a 1/8, first off u have worse odds of hitting mafia, second u force urself to lynch on a 1/6 next day instead of a 1/5, which is worse odds again etc.etc... town winchance in vdli decreases hugely with the new meteor meta
deletedalmost 10 years
What's to explain. The odds of lynching mafia rise to 2/5 if he is uncc'd, automatically increasing towns odds and if he is cc'd the odds are either close to 50% if cop is lynched (most likely, you'll arrive at 3 way 1 clear) or slightly above 50% if mafia is lynched (a ML at 5 way, and most likely a 3 way one clear if you lynch wrong)
As it stands, the stats with cop staying hidden are 62/37 after about 75 games, which is far under the EV for my strategy.
Played the way it is, this setup is STBS with an OT instead of PRs knowing each other, which is less useful imo
1. you'll have to explain the math behind town's EV going up if cop claims 2. i'm pretty sure town lynching is better for town if mafia NKs n1 in vdli
deletedalmost 10 years
Not the EV, which is the only thing that matters.
deletedalmost 10 years
look, all math says i'm right
deletedalmost 10 years
A 52 and 51 percent win rate player argue that odds are irrelevant. HmmmMMMMMMM
deletedalmost 10 years
cop can be lynched but not at flat 1/3 odds. there is a condition attached to his lynch which affects the next day. cop shouldn't claim unless mafia ccs him or he gets outed himself.
deletedalmost 10 years
Sirius, cop should definitely claim on the first day. I'm done arguing with you. I am assuming that cop can be lynched day one, because that's what an EV assumes. You never know what kind of morons you're going to play with. The EV is the most accurate measurement of optimal strategy, and the EV says to claim cop at some point on day one.
deletedalmost 10 years
nah
deletedalmost 10 years
Vitacon13s odds aside because they're irrelevant, it's objectively more challenging to lynch scum in a game where there's a clear right off the bat because you're practically giving scum a free pass to do anything (or nothing)
Your win rate is approximately 51% because you don't think odds matter. They do.
deletedalmost 10 years
lol at ur sucky compromise
deletedalmost 10 years
bro i knew u were counting in that cop could be lynched. cop cannot be lynched without giving town a 50/50 d1. u are so wrong here bro. the odds are never 2/6, 1/3 that mafia can be lynched. gov can't be lynched and cop can't be lynched without making it a 1/2.
deletedalmost 10 years
odds aside because they're irrelevant, it's objectively more challenging to lynch scum in a game where there's a clear right off the bat because you're practically giving scum a free pass to do anything (or nothing)
deletedalmost 10 years
It really doesn't matter when cop claims on day one tbh, as long as he claims at some point on the first day. He could stay hidden till 5 minutes for your purposes Sirius, I can see that point.
