It isn't about capability. No one's saying they're stupid. People in positions of authority need to command some amount of respect from the people they're in charge of. Cheating gets in the way of that. It's the only important rule you can break. It shows that you don't respect your community and it doesn't give the community any reason to respect you.
It's a level of trust. Regular users should be able to trust a moderator to carry out their duties responsibly, and a former cheater is likely to be trusted less by the community than a non-cheater. The main concern in regards to this would be the various privileges and access a mod has, and how they could utilise that if they weren't fully reformed.
I think this question is not really black and white. I wouldn't say that anyone who has any history of cheating should not be able to mod. It is clear that some ex cheaters have the capacity and capability to mod.
I am however against modding repeated or recent cheaters, when there could be an alternative who hasn't broken the rules. Its not even that they cant do a good job, its more the fact that why should ex cheaters be made mods over other users. Its slightly hypocritical and certainly doesn't paint a good picture for the mod team.