Also most setups are, from a purely mathematical standpoint considering only the roles and probabilities without any of the human factors, rather scumsided. It has nothing to do with mafia being in a power position really, it's just that if you make everyone's reads no better than random the numbers side with scum except in setups where no one follows strategies anywhere close to the mathematically correct ones.
deletedabout 10 years
I don't think there's a setup titled "Basic" out there, mate.
Ok so parts of this are right and parts of this are wrong.
#1 math is always right as long as the model fits the situation and the math isn't erroneous, you can't just ignore it.
#2 the statistics account for all factors influencing the win rate, obviously, including all of these subjective bits.. cos it's the number of times that side won.
... that said....
If you care about how balanced a setup is ONLY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF PLAY then yes the statistics don't mean all that much.
And yes, your analysis of why VDLI is townsided at the highest level of play is at least partially accurate. So basically if you think VDLI is townsided overall regardless of level of play, you're dumb. If you think it's townsided at a high level of play because of the subjective qualities of the setup then you're smart.
Edark is pretty clearly not addressing anything you're saying in either case.
If you're never lynched as mafia then you automatically win. (Discounting oracle shenanigans, although technically you being lynch would be the result anyway.) If you're never lynched as town then you win 82.5% of the time. (Discounting being pr and being the n1 kill and not factoring in the stalk.)
I care about practicality and assuming optimal play.
Setups should always lean mafia sided because mafia is inherently in a power position. In many setups(Basic for example), one bad townie can easily lose the game singlehandedly and further contribute to a mafia sided setup.
Now on the other hand, having a setup like SDS where you have 3 50/50 lynches and all of them have to be correct isn't the way to do it either.
Cry and Spy is basically very similar to VDLI in the way it plays the difference is the PRs cant out which doesn't lower suspects and the PRs also don't give more clears with a bad role like the orc.
Furthermore you arent essentially guaranteed a clear in 3 way because of how overpowered the orc is in this sort of setup.
3 way no clears happens all the time in Cry and spy although it is unlikely. The setup balance reflects that.
Im slaying the dadslayer with short conclusive posts while he frantically slams his keyboard in an attempt to look somewhat smart and witty, yet he fails miserably
