Epicmafia

LYNCH D1 ON HOLLYWOOD ILLUSIONS

almost 10 years

It is optimal for town to lynch D1. With 8 players and a daystart, town has a ML. USE IT DAY 1. It is much better for town to use the ML on D1 than to NL D1 and shoot D2.

Typically, bleeder will be hit by maf on N1, keeping D2 at 8 players. Here is the advantages and disadvantages between D1 and D2 for town and maf:

TOWN ADVANTAGES ON D2:

Bleeder has a gun.

TOWN DISADVANTAGES ON D2:

Bleeder will die at end of the day.

MAFIA ADVANTAGES ON D2:

Illusionist has used his power and gets a free shot to potentially take out a PR.

Actress has disguised herself as a member of town and will not give town any valuable information when she dies.

The two mafs know each other and can guide the kills away from each other.

The two mafs have been able to plan a strategy.

MAFIA DISADVANTAGES ON D2:

Literally nothing.

So you're at the same situation on D2 that you're in on D1, but with maf having all of their advantages. If maf doesn't hit the bleeder on N1, then they're dumb and you don't need a fancy strategy to beat them anyway.

Statistically, it is exactly the same to lynch on D1 instead of on D2. With bleeder as the clear, there is a 2/7 chance of lynching a Mafia on D1. With bleeder gunned, there is a 2/7 chance of shooting a Mafia on D2. But waiting until D2 gives mafia all of their advantages and puts the town in a sticky situation.

Another advantage for town is that maf is forced to legitimately scumhunt on D1. They need to find their partner so they don't accidentally lynch them, and they need to find town so they can try to push the lynch to that person. Maf is forced to give legitimate scum and town reads so as to not appear to scummy on D1, which helps town.

If you ML on D1, town is in LYLO. DO NOT SHOOT THE GUN IF YOU ML ON D1. But town is in LYLO if you misfire on D2. Same situation, but a much better advantage for town.

People complain that lynching on D1 forces PRs to out. It doesn't. PRs stay hidden unless they are being lynched. If the lynch is on them, they claim their role, not just as PR. This forces maf to CC a specific role, which is good for town, because it could potentially force a non-optimal CC for maf. Lynch outside of the CC's. If the other PR gets CC'd, great! This puts town in a great situation. Both CC's are known, so now there are 3 clears instead of just 1. Actress's power is now useless, because they're forced to actress their CC, and they know every role. Illu's gun is useless, because they're forced to shoot a blue. Now you can NL and guntest between the 3 clears. You'll get a confirmed maf on D2. Scumhunt with your clears alive.

The only disadvantage for town is if you're lynching a PR and that PR doesn't get CC'd. It outs the PR and gives you no mafia reads. But that is much better than the actress learning a PR's role and having the illu shoot that PR right away, because with an uncc'd pr on D1, you get another clear to help drive the discussion. A real disadvantage for town is if both PR's end up being uncc'd on D1, because one dies at night and the other dies at daystart if illu is alive. But the odds of that happening are 4/210 (1/7 chance to lead lynch on first PR, 1/6 chance to lead lynch on 2nd PR, 4/5 chance to not lynch illu), less than a 2% chance. Pretty good odds.

If you ML on D1, town is in LYLO. DO NOT SHOOT THE GUN IF YOU ML ON D1. But town is in LYLO if you misfire on D2. Same situation, but a much better advantage for town.

Togepi

almost 10 years

I like this idea.

deletedalmost 10 years

Shorter idea: shut up

Hibiki

almost 10 years

that doesn't look very short

Jaleb

almost 10 years

Shorter version of what you're saying https://epicmafia.com/topic/70167

Jaleb

almost 10 years

ling says

the thing about lynching day 1 on a lot of setups is that it just makes it more like stbs and scumhunting setups where mafia dont know thier partner and setups arnt unique due to thier mechanics anymore

like its optimal to lynch day 1 in a and d, but then its not really a and d anymore

It's still A&D, but it has town winning a slightly greater percentage of the time since you don't have to worry about GS getting hooked n1, thus using your ml.

ling

almost 10 years

the thing about lynching day 1 on a lot of setups is that it just makes it more like stbs and scumhunting setups where mafia dont know thier partner and setups arnt unique due to thier mechanics anymore

like its optimal to lynch day 1 in a and d, but then its not really a and d anymore

Hibiki

almost 10 years

Giga13 says

Another advantage for Mafia on N2 is they obtain PR reads from D1 for their kill on N2. I used to not really care because I would figure it's harder to find mafia on Day 1 but after analyzing it lynching Day 1 is kind of better, but most towns nowadays are garbage at it, also you could lynch a PR D1 but if you generate a CC in the process it automatically becomes worth it. Lots of variables

"kind of better"

Ash0wns

almost 10 years

nling on d1 = the worst idea possible.

deletedalmost 10 years

gerryoat1 says

We tried this earlier and it was a disaster. lynched a villager and GS was actressed. (luckily it vegged)

I'D DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN

MasterCheif

almost 10 years

Only lynch d1 if you're good and won't out pr's.

Giga13

almost 10 years

Another advantage for Mafia on N2 is they obtain PR reads from D1 for their kill on N2. I used to not really care because I would figure it's harder to find mafia on Day 1 but after analyzing it lynching Day 1 is kind of better, but most towns nowadays are garbage at it, also you could lynch a PR D1 but if you generate a CC in the process it automatically becomes worth it. Lots of variables

gerryoat

almost 10 years

We tried this earlier and it was a disaster. lynched a villager and GS was actressed. (luckily it vegged)

NothinButTime1

almost 10 years

its better to lynch or shoot pranay. it lets everyone else live another day

panthero

almost 10 years

ive lynched day1 as bleeder. was on atikur's account. lynched the actress. then shot the illusionist on day2. so the strategy is

1- if you are town- listen to pranay if he is clear.

2- if you are town- listen to pranay - very likely to be town

3- if you are mafia- smoke weed. pranay has got you. if he is on your team, you won already, if he is town, then you just let town self destruct and tell them to not to listen to pranay. if they do, you are done.