Each Wednesday, I'm going to make a thread about a particular subject about Epic Mafia Game Theory.
Our first discussion will be about 3 way vs. 4 way.
When there is an even amount of players, if one kill and one lynch happens every night and day, when the game reaches critical point, it will be a MYLO with meteor on town so mafia can choose to no kill and not clear anyone.
However, this can be avoided by "NLing for 3 way" or "NLing to avoid 4 way" by having mafia choose a kill to make it 3 way.
There's definitely some reasons to avidly oppose and avidly support NLing for 3 way, and there's also different scenarios in which you may support one over the other.
Feel free to openly discuss when, and when not to NL for 3 way and answer the poll on your stance in general.
Please note that everyone will have various opinions and there's no right or wrong opinions. I want several opinions to fly but make sure that the conversation doesn't get too heated or I will have to mute you. Feel free to PM me recommendations for next week's game theory topic.
On average, how imperative do you feel is it for town to NL if they are in a 4 way scenario at day? Give your answer using a scale of 1-10
Cop and doc alive - examples: Jan, BV - Lynch if not mylo - don't bother with even numbers. Mafia kills doc before cop. If doc dies, then NL to avoid mylo. Lynch for more accurate reports. The only backfire is if you lynch the doc, but there's more mafia so lynch. When doc outs - there might be no reason to NL then.
About this "might"... as there are some town pr roles that can make turn your 4way/3way into your favor, there are also mafia roles that can help them getting more unclears in 4way/3way.
Imagine 6way with lawyer checked by cop or cop found mafia with hooker alive. Mafia can keep NK'ing as cop can't find lawyer's partner or will keep getting hooked. After lynching the guilty, mafia kills the cop. Also, think it's not worth NL'ing if there was also a doc - cop has to find the remaining mafia, remember.
Stalker is also a role that can change the gameplay. Why NL'ing on mylo if cop gets flawed reports with miller, lawyer, hooker and other annoying stuff while the stalker's getting town roles one by one and making up a strategy to ensure as few clears as possible? Example: SDS.
What about janitor and supposable cop-doc combo? Well, play at your own risk. Is doc dead or alive?
jimmy, always when you see the possible pointless-beneficial scenario, try going this way. NL'ing with the meteor on town may result in mafia either NK'ing (pointless) or killing (beneficial). And you're wrong about NL'ing to avoid 4way giving more pr reads, it's up to town if they give it easier for pr read or not, they might make it more difficult instead.
Like you said, the meteor is on town so nling in the first place is pointless. Usually maf will kill into 3 way but smart maf won't. The 3 way/4 way difference isn't so great that they should be nling and possibly forcing meteor on town. If you can find maf in a 3 way-no clears, you can find maf in 4-way no clears. Even more so if it's 4 way-1 clear. All nling to avoid 4 way does is give pr reads if it's early game and force meteor on town in late game.
deletedover 6 years
I like having an extra brain around, but more often than not i'll try to NL
Gonna leave the multiple roles in one setup for later and say about their destiny in 3way or 4way as a single of them
Some investigative roles force mafia to kill, otherwise they'll be checked and found. Roles like cop, justice have to be killed before being found. NL on even numbers if you know that the only one of these investigatives will die tonight.
Other investigative roles, if mafia does nothing they shouldn't be afraid. These are journalist, tracker, watcher. Keep in mind that mafia shouldn't leave a mislynch or force meteor, but it's easy for these to keep 4ways.
Doctor is a protective role that may change even/odd numbers during the game upon successful save, but don't lynch on even numbers solely based on doc being alive, much less chance on save than killed doc which ensures 4way.
Bodyguard and surgeon don't fix numbers, they only replace mafia kills with theirs.
Reveals... oracle/clear with crystal... mafia kills them if there's no other pr's to kill. Most optimal if it's not a kill into 4way/3way, it leaves unclear during them.
Roleblocking with drunk/nurse is simple: if there are 2 mafs at most - always lynch no matter what numbers. With more mafs - keep the odd numbers if possible.
TL;DR in points with basic roles:
- Roles such as cop force mafia to kill them even if meteor is on town, to prevent being revealed. - Roles such as tracker don't scare mafia if they don't visit. They shouldn't give a mislynch though. - It's suboptimal to lynch on even numbers if only doctor is alive. - Oracle is an optimal mafia kill if no one else is clear but not into 4way/3way. - Always lynch when max 2 mafia left with outed drunk in game even on 6way.
In regards to 4 way 1 clear vs 3 way no clear it all depends on whether or not I feel I can better appeal to the clear or the other players in my decision of whether to push for 3way or 4way.
scum usually cracks under pressure in an unclear 3 way and ends up hedging or slipping in some obv way, having a pr hammer in 3 gives u lower statistical odds, town usually gets hammer in an unclear 3 way (unless u were already gonna lose the game) n u have 50/50 without tells
Now, let's expand a little and say about even and odd numbers which lead to this 4way or 3way.
Most of the fresh players with basic knowledge and part of these experienced ones have zero-one system about this: even - NL; odd - lynch. Setups with more than one kill per day-night cycle are exceptions. Let's say about these with single kills first.
The simplest setups
Let's start with the simplest - no investigative, no protective, no additives, only clears and unclears, such as U&H, etc.
Zero-one system is the most optimal for town.
For mafia, optimal would be to get into 4way without clears, which means like 3blue1maf. If these 3 blues are alive and meteor rules don't say otherwise, mafia shouldn't kill a clear to fix mylo into lylo. This way they'd end up killing unclear blue into 3way. Also keep in mind that if it's a mislynch, you should add one more unclear into calculation. If there's way less unclears, mafia simply shouldn't give a mislynch.
Only problem I have is people avoiding 4way just because they heard they should do it when the change to 3way sometimes doesn't matter (I've seen many people NL in 4way with 1 Clear to make it 3way, why?)
If mafia decide to kill an experienced player left alive when they don't have to, then that's WIFOM on their part and the argument as to whether or not that is optimal can only be done subjectively on a situational, case-by-case basis
Mechanically, everything that Giga13 said is right.
But I like NL'ing on mylo with no clears when the meteor is on town as there's a chance that somebody inexperienced hits anyway. When I'm faced with a situation where both NL and lynching are both alright, I try to find out which one is more convenient for me and what I would gain with any of these choices.
matt wouldn't like to NL on 4way as town because he's always confident in his skills to take control over the town and he's afraid of being killed in a table of players who don't scumhunt as well as him.
