If hooker is still alive, then mafia can hook one PR and kill the other, thus rendering both prs useless.
If PRs outed and there are ccs:
It is 1/3 shooting in prs, and 2/5 shooting outside. This is a bad situation.
Sheriff can ask prs to hardclaim, making a 1/2 chance of shooting pr day 1, and not being able to lynch until day 2. shooting in prs guarantee hooker staying alive, and being able to hook one, kill other PR.
If sheriff shoots in blues, then there is only 1/5 chance hooker is shot. If hooker isn't shot, then mafia can meet up, hook one PR, and then kill another pr.
If sheriff straight-up hipfires:
2/8 chance of hitting unouted prs
3/8 chance of hitting random blue, wasting shot that could be used for D2 cop reports
2/8 chance of hitting nilla or lawyer
1/8 chance of hitting hooker
If blacksmith is shot, then fake cop can random guilty any blue without hesitation day 2.
Now I dare anyone to explain how shooting Day 1 is not Gamethrow.
It doesn't happen often that you get roasted by hugo and have no comeback. Wear this as a badge.
deletedalmost 7 years
For a player who knows how to read the odds don't determine their actions as much as it determines for noobs. When they mark townreads the odds get better.
deletedalmost 7 years
For dreamgate shooting mafia is always 3/8 or something because he is a player who has no idea how to read and picks lynches based on the following.
1- he or she will lynch someone if cop has a report
2- he or she will lynch in counterclaims when they have ml
3- he or she will close their eyes and hammer in 1/2 in a 3 way and sometimes they will hammer based on isp or who talks the most
They will always pick lynch in a pool where they have a higher chance to lynch mafia because they have absolutely no idea how to read. They assume the same is true for all other players and therefore don't understand that sometimes shooting mafia is 100 percent if the sheriff has something solid to go on. They don't understand the concept of risk and payout. They are not capable of thinking beyond a certain level and therefore rely completely on odds. Probability is used to increase the odds when we can without hurting anything. Like if we are certain that the mafia has to kill in unclears then it doesnt hurt to better the odds. In some cases the odds dont change but the noobs still want to kill confirmed. In some cases lynching in bad odds might give you autowin of which there is no other possibility otherwise.
But as I said, people with linear thinking abilities like dreamgate do not have the luxury of scumhunting or thinking beyond a level.
Hipfiring can't be proven, because someone will always say they saw a tell and used that to shoot.
We've been through this all before, and just like selfing for the clear(which is also playing against win con), no one will take action against it because it makes mafia easier, and no one wants to try too hard.
It is finding the culprit using the most efficient and optimal methods
deletedalmost 7 years
This game is not supposed to be played on odds. The odds don't mean anything. Only primary level of probability is used to determine basic actions like lynching or nling. Strategic actions are taken based on information in the game. You shoot day1 if you feel like it. Hell yeah is not a strategy. It is just a juvenile misnomer. Sometimes people use it for hipfire and sometimes for informed shooting. Trying to play this game on probability is the same as passing judgement in the court based on who is most likely to be the culprit.
deletedalmost 7 years
your statement implies that doing HELL YEAH is optimal, however, by using the facts and figures above, it demonstrates how it is not optimal. mafia can still win even after hooker is hipfired, so it is high risk without that high of a reward, making it suboptimal GT
yes the game where I spent like 1min updating Jeff on a story and you didn't ask for any role to claim and just shoot me and randomly hit me perfectly but I didn't report for hip-firing lol
'Intentionally playing against your win condition or not playing to win. Includes fake claims made for any other purpose than strategy as well as voting someone based on a grudge. Forcing a draw (meteor) when you are not faced with an autolose situation falls under this category as well, since lynching/killing would give you a chance to win. Hipfiring can also fall under GT/Trolling depending on intent/scenario and is moderated on a case to case basis with discretion.'
you can hipfire after 3 people say hell yeah and still try to win afterwards. some might argue that by shooting on the sole basis of 3 people saying hell yeah indicates that the person is not trying to win, but if they clearly attempt to win afterward then it's trolling, imo.
risky play does not equate gamethrow this post is stupid
deletedalmost 7 years
Of course in one game, game 6384443, GayLivesMatter asks prs to out, and then there are 3 claims, then one retracts, making both "clear". I was blacksmith and I didn't claim pr because I didn't want a PR to be shot day 1. what does he do? he shoots cop. then mafia kills me, and he doesnt want to lynch confirmed mafia.
