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Jan 2.0

Doconme
over 8 years

https://epicmafia.com/game/5351345/review

Let's discuss strategy since we have to discuss this nearly every game.

Above game is a perfect example.

My opinion:

If one cop has an inno (Cop A) on day 1 and another cop has a guilty (Cop B), you lynch between Cop B and the guilty. IF AND ONLY IF you believe Cop A is real cop then lynch cop B and if you believe cop B is real cop then lynch the guilty. This is because the guilty could possibly be lawyer and getting the lawyer is better than getting the janitor. This is not a guilty test. If you think cop B is fake feel free to lynch him.

"what if mafia guessed the miller" Assuming villager got janned.... If the mafia fakes a guilty. They have a 1/6 chance of getting cop, 1/6 orc, 1/6 doc, 2/6 blue, 1/6 miller. Only a 1/6 chance of guessing the miller.

So I if I am a blue and I get tricked by mafia cop who faked guilty on a non-pr, I still have a 2/3 chance of getting bailed out by the guilty flipping blue instead of miller. Again, this is assuming I believe the mafia cop. If I don't believe the mafia cop I vote him. On the flip side, if it's real cop that got the guilty AND I believe him, there's a basically 50/50 chance that his guilty is lawyer. Why not get possible lawyer over janitor?

In the above referenced game, real cop got guilty on the miller. Janitor was lynched day 1. No matter how hard boop the miller towntold, she was STILL lynched day 2. The ML was still gone from the town. So in this case, since all townies believed Roo day 1 anyway, they should have no issues lynching Boop day 1 for possible lawyer. And if she flipped miller at the end of day 1, it's fine the ML is gone (like what happened anyway) and you lynch jan day 2. So from a blue's perspective it was literally the same thing since they believed Roo but it was more advantageous to lynch Boop day 1 because:

1) What if boop is lawyer 2) What if roo tricked everyone and faked guilty? There is a 2/3 chance we get bailed out and boop flips blue. In that case, real cop still lives.

Again, it's not a blind guilty test. If town had believed scansquantum then they should have lynched Roo 100%.

Once this strat is understood, maf will stop fake guiltying because real cop won't even be in the lynch pool. Regardless, mafia only has 1/6 chance of guilying the miller.

The ONLY way this turns into a loss is IF the majority of the town gets fooled by fake cop AND fake cop guessed miller. Chances of that are slim. On the flip side, town get bailed out 2/3 times even if they believe fake cop.

xJuicy
about 8 years
Should never be comped again.
brownpimp007
about 8 years
Bump
Tatami
over 8 years
I'm still amazed at the complications this is causing when I literally did all the math for everyone and gave the tl;dr:

Trade 1/12 chance of autoloss, in return you get a 1/6 chance of blue lynch over what normally would be a cop lynch
Giga13
over 8 years
honestly i think i proved that the method you use doesn't really matter as both are viable options, but at first i was just trying to go over each method and find out which method was better, if any.

obviously actual scumhunting makes each way easier, but you can't count on players these days for anything lol. if you factor scumhunting into any probability it boosts town winning chances by like 5% at least though so you're right about that

i have many other videos that are much better lol, which range from analyzing games to talking about tactics to live games, check out https://epicmafia.com/topic/74061 if interested
brownpimp007
over 8 years

Giga13 says

Ok I did it https://youtu.be/wsMecsspMZo (give it 10 minutes to finish processing)


LMAOOOO giga you def did mindfuck yourself. And you def proved that my method is better dude. Plus you were talking straight probability now imagine factoring actual scumhunting into it and not blind guilty testing. Come on dude admit it lol
justrec
over 8 years
Hey I did good this game
Giga13
over 8 years
Ok it's ready now
Giga13
over 8 years
Ok I did it https://youtu.be/wsMecsspMZo (give it 10 minutes to finish processing)
Iverson
over 8 years

brownpimp007 says

It's quite hilarious that all of you including Anthony are blatantly ignoring the fact that I repeatedly said its not a guilty test. It's a vote for possible lawyer who would her lynched day 2 90% of the time anyway IF YOU BELIEVE the cop with the guilty. Not sure why you guys can't wrap your head around that. If you believe the cop with the inno, then just lynch the cop that has the guilty. Simple.



Tatami says

tl;dr of viability of strat:

Equal to traditional if cop is real, if cop is fake you trade 1/6 chance of lynching blue (over cop) for a 1/12 autoloss with every other scenario equal to traditional.

Instinct is that guilty testing is not worth it as the autoloss likely outweighs the benefit of having cop live over a blue (despite being 2x as likely)


If you read the actual description I wrote of anything it's all about doing what you're describing, call it whatever you want.

Clarification on me calling it autoloss was given in another post but it's straightforward-I called it that as the outlier games are balanced out the on other side.
Giga13
over 8 years

Anthony says

just saying, you have a potential TvT d1 lynch if you use this strategy, between the real cop and a potential clear, unless you're going to argue that once lawyer is lynched mafia would no law. but it doesn't matter because jan 2.0 is a sh­it show anyway and the playerbase can't handle any sort of critical thinking that it requires



Anthony says

you should always use your day 1 lynch on someone who you scumread versus potential lawyer or potential cop. if you scumread cop a but townread cop b's guilty why bother removing them from the game when you could lynch the cop you scumread


I concur with Anthony on these points
Giga13
over 8 years

brownpimp007 says

It's quite hilarious that all of you including Anthony are blatantly ignoring the fact that I repeatedly said its not a guilty test. It's a vote for possible lawyer who would her lynched day 2 90% of the time anyway IF YOU BELIEVE the cop with the guilty. Not sure why you guys can't wrap your head around that. If you believe the cop with the inno, then just lynch the cop that has the guilty. Simple.


Yeah it's just what if the real cop has guilty on miller lol

Keeping the lynch in Cops prevents the < 50% chance of retaining the ML (assuming mafia never bus, which they usually don't)

If you go from a RAW probability standpoint it's just a bunch of 50 50s, but after including other relevant elements, it's fairly subjective when deciding which option is better. But if I had to pick between brown's strategy and lynching in Cops Day 1, I'd pick lynching in Cops Day 1 because that way I for sure know that there's a mafia in my lynch pool, compared to a (usually) 2/3 chance of there being a mafia in my lynch pool

I might make a video on this today honestly; I think this argument involves deeper than normal thinking
Giga13
over 8 years
One way or another, I myself personally dislike Jan 2.0 because all of the mechanical elements take away from the actual scumhunting (for newer players) and towns end up arguing over who is right when it comes to which approach should be used and then the majority of towns being lost when it comes to getting reads because of the amount of time wasted doing the above
Giga13
over 8 years

brownpimp007 says

Ya Pranay you are right. But if my strat is instituted, maf will stop faking guilties because they know they won't have the opportunity of even getting real cop lynched on day 1 and their chances of guessing miller are low.


If they stop faking guilties then you don't have to worry about this situation that much

And if the meta changes, they can just claim with a guilty anyways because it would make them look "real" and people would begin to approach this setup like Classic or FP (although most new players do this anyway lol)
Iverson
over 8 years

brownpimp007 says

2) Assume fake cop guiltied the miller and miller gets lynched. On day 2, the real cop still gets another report and still has the same opportunity to towntell that the miller had in the first situation because "what if fake cop guessed miller."

Not sure what's still unclear about this. People seem to be scared of the term "autoloss."


The thing is if you try and account for this, the same works in reverse-miller getting lynched over real cop then real cop getting lynched anyway.

It's simpler to say it's autoloss because in almost every case it will be, but even the fringe cases you're describing they are offset equally from the other side.
Kaioxys
over 8 years
I'm surprised someone is actually thinking about setups and optimal play on this site.
blank
over 8 years
anthony
Anthony
over 8 years
btw i never said that it was a guilty test i said you're potentially lynching between cop and a future clear
Gerry
over 8 years
Okay, in a scenario where cop is confirmed real and they have a guilty, then lynching the guilty is ok. But ONLY if they are confirmed real. Because they could be lawyer.

https://epicmafia.com/game/5349315 - this game mafia guiltied uncc'd doc. and I had a guilty on pranay. So because I was confirmed cop, I advocated lynching the guilty because doc would die, and nothing would change the next day. I would have no confirmed inno/maf if we lynched jan instead of lawyer. (which i ended up getting nilla for auto)
Anthony
over 8 years
my response about the autoloss was to Jerk. this doesn't apply to what you're saying because in the event mafia b fakes a guilty he has the potential to be lynched instead.

I personally don't like any strategy involving lynching between potential town v town and potential cop v clear when you could lynch a. cop you beleive is fake or b. outside cops.
brownpimp007
over 8 years
Ya Pranay you are right. But if my strat is instituted, maf will stop faking guilties because they know they won't have the opportunity of even getting real cop lynched on day 1 and their chances of guessing miller are low.
brownpimp007
over 8 years
You guys are undervaluing getting possible lawyer day 1 as well.

Anthony
It wouldn't be 1/6 (1/5) autoloss because it's all dependent on town believing the fake cop in the first place. So even if you take straight 50/50 odds with no scumhunting you would be at 1/10.

Gerry
If you believe the fake cop is real, then your alternative to losing the possible 1/3 miller is losing real cop....the key is always to try to figure out which cop is real first. Nobody is saying blind guilty test.

Anthony and Gerry
1)Assume real cop guiltied miller and real cop gets lynched. Day 2 the miller still has an opportunity to towntell because "what if real cop guiltied miller." Jan gets lynched day 2 and miller lives till day 3 and can possibly get orced. But there are no cop reports.
2) Assume fake cop guiltied the miller and miller gets lynched. On day 2, the real cop still gets another report and still has the same opportunity to towntell that the miller had in the first situation because "what if fake cop guessed miller." And real cop still has opportunity to be orced or have their cc be orced which is unlikely but it's there.

So in both situations, town has lost the ML by belieing the wrong cop but in situation 2:
1) Cop is still alive
2) Cop has the same opportunity to towntell like the miller in situation 1
3) Town still has a 2/3 chance of getting bailed out by the guilty flipping blue even though they were incorrect in believing fake cop.


Not sure what's still unclear about this. People seem to be scared of the term "autoloss."
mandevian
over 8 years
Yo brown. People do not have the ability to think in the way you think. They can think in only one direction. They recently figured out that guilty testing is bad, so if you suggest lynching the guilty, they will think it's a guilty test. I think this is partly my fauly, because I started faking guilty as maf every time.
Gerry
over 8 years
yeah you could believe cop is real, and they are fake. and then you lose a ml and potentially in autoloss if they guessed miller.
brownpimp007
over 8 years
It's quite hilarious that all of you including Anthony are blatantly ignoring the fact that I repeatedly said its not a guilty test. It's a vote for possible lawyer who would her lynched day 2 90% of the time anyway IF YOU BELIEVE the cop with the guilty. Not sure why you guys can't wrap your head around that. If you believe the cop with the inno, then just lynch the cop that has the guilty. Simple.
Gerry
over 8 years

PatrykSzczescie says

By the way all the time I see inno and guilty on the same person, town decides to lynch the cop instead of guilty test.


guilty is more than likely miller or random blue in that case. Because odds are mafia wouldn't inno their lawyer so.. Unless mafia with guilty claimed first and it was a long delay before the other cop claimed with inno. (but even that is risky cause mafia knows guilty will most likely be tested)