town lynches the naked enforcer and gs guns in one of the blue claims (that he trs) and ends up gunning the mafia. did gs GT?
Scenario two: naked enforcer - villager - clear celeb - mafia claiming blue - cop with report on dead
everyone votes the naked enforcer and cop has report dead but makes up a guilty report on one of the blues (that he foses) and he ends up guiltying the blue. did cop GT?
Scenario three: orc - mafia - miller - 2 blues - cop with guilty report on mafia - enforcer
enforcer ccs cop and ends up getting lynched, mafia kill cop at night, blue gets lynched and now it's night time with mafia/orc/blue/miller left.
if mafia kills in blues there is a 50% change he kills the miller and that means autolose and if mafia kills the orc, there is a 2/3 chance of autolose so mafia decides to nk and town nls until meteor hits and no one wins. did mafia GT?
first of all, its not 2/3 autoloss out of the kills because if he kills orc, then theres other variables off that kill
also, why are you trying to argue that mafia are allowed to NK if they can reach autoloss by killing? if theres a chance mafia can win the game, they should have to take it(reasonable circumstances, not something where orc would have to self orc/no orc in gai). as pranay said right above this post, you likely got yourself in the position where autoloss was a possibility so why should you favor from it and not town?
even if mafia did have only a "33%" chance to win, that number is not low enough to justify it being "basically autoloss" and rules having to be changed
scenario 3 is not a bad setup. You joined that setup knowing that you might reach a situation where you have to rely on luck to avoid autoloss. You would not reach there if you played better before and saved your partners from getting lynched.
If you are not able to get the cop out on day1 then you have to play much better. You have to kill the doc and hope cop does not check who you don't want them to check.
If you bus your partner on day1, and then don't do anything to save other partner on day2, then the advantage will definitely shift to town.
Meteor is designed that way to maintain the advantage which town got because of poor play by mafia.
Luck is always a factor in the game, but to bypass that you have to play better.
deletedalmost 9 years
read jaleb's strategy (which I personally disagree with) for jan 2 it's basically the same thing
this is my belief, but not really in in this scenario & the setup he described was awful so i'm not even sure i can fathom a game with those roles being played more than 3 times for it to even come to that possibility
Chance is Under 50%. if chance is under 50% then why kill? At this point if the chance for Autoloss is bigger than the the chance for non-autoloss, then it should be ok to nk and force meteor.
2 can be a gt if he does not say his real report.
deletedalmost 9 years
NP.
deletedalmost 9 years
you were wrong about scenario 2 and 3. 2 is not gt, 3 is gt. 3 is gt because if mafia doesn't hit mafia will lose 100% without a doubt but if he hit he still has a chance of winning even if it's not all that much
1: Not a gt. You are allowed to gun your townread. 2.A cop with fake guilty is not a gt, but he must say it is a reaction test.
If he does not say it is a reaction test , and out his real report,it is a GT.
3. You all say it is not an autoloss, but the mafia has a choice in 3 kills. - Blue, Miller , Orc.
If he hits miller - Autoloss If he hits Blue - Not Autoloss If he hits orc - 33% to reveal maf 33% to reveal miller 33% to reveal blue which means 66% for autoloss, 33 % for not Autoloss, so since the rate is 1/3 for not autoloss, killing orc is basically autoloss.
2/3 is Autoloss out of the kills.
So this scenario should be auoloss for mafia if he kills, because the % for loss is much higher than those for win.
It should not be a GT , because killing will most likely lead to autoloss rather than something else.
This tab above explains it well.
deletedalmost 9 years
and now I can't even reset the password on my main mimerafm, it doesn't send me the link to my email for some reason and I've contacted all the admins, none of them seem to give a
deletedalmost 9 years
panthero you are wrong and you were also wrong about the alt of my main account (main was mimerafm alt was squawk) which was removed thanks to the hacker.
1 and 2 are absolute nonthrows, if you're town its your obligation to do whatever it takes to win the game. gunning in scenario 1 is optimal if you trust your read more than you trust the celeb to hammer, hypocopping in scenario 2 is optimal if you know your own death is coming and want to affect the 3way
if you dont do what the prs did in scenarios 1+2 you're trying to take the easy way out
