Epicmafia

Gambler's Fallacy?

over 9 years

The gambler's fallacy is the idea that if you take a coin and flip it two times that it is more likely to end up with a heads on the second try if the first try landed on heads.

It's true that the individual instance of flipping the coin is always 50/50, until you introduce the possibility of a group of coin flips. For example.

Flipping a coin two times and ending up in a situation where you get heads twice, is only likely to happen in 1/4 Instances.

Heads - Heads. - 1/4 Heads - Tails. - 1/4 Tails - Tails. - 1/4 Tails - Heads. - 1/4

The actual chance you have of landing heads after the first flip is not 50/50.

Because first you had to land heads in order for the possibility of two heads in a row ever occurring.

This has the implication of being a meta-tool for people who want to up their chances of guessing correctly who is Mafia and who isn't, based on what they were in previous games. Because there is a different chance of being Mafia twice in a row than there is being Mafia in one game.

Enough of a chance that people would bet money on it.

Sort of related: https://epicmafia.com/topic/69634

Are the odds of landing heads on the second flip 1/2 or 1/4?

1/2

1/4

Edark

over 9 years

VictoriaEldor says

Edark says

TL:DR

Edark says

the first flip doesnt affect the second flip

It does, or the entire premise that 50*50=0.25 Would be flawed.

Therefore 50*50 = 0.50
This doesn't happen. Look for links on the thread to see it demonstrated.

The only instance that anything in the universe may even be isolated, is if it does not exist. This is the logical explanation for why in probability experiments, the law of averages is always discovered.

And it was posted!

jesus freaking christ you're stupid

UniversalStudios

over 9 years

VictoriaEldor says

I'm confused, in this instance, "meta" doesn't matter. Because people do not need to rely on arbitrary tells, reads and etcetera if they were using this tactic?

Oh you're trying to solve FP mathematically, I already told you that you can memorize the role assignments down to probability of which mafia ends up where.

VictoriaEldor

over 9 years

Edark says

TL:DR

Edark says

the first flip doesnt affect the second flip

It does, or the entire premise that 50*50=0.25 Would be flawed.

Therefore 50*50 = 0.50
This doesn't happen. Look for links on the thread to see it demonstrated.

The only instance that anything in the universe may even be isolated, is if it does not exist. This is the logical explanation for why in probability experiments, the law of averages is always discovered.

And it was posted!

GrudgeVote

over 9 years

Also your entire premise is flawed, because you already tossed heads. The likely-hood of it happening 2x in a row is 50%

GrudgeVote

over 9 years

I just rolled virgin 3x in a row in sandbox.

OP can suck it.

Edark

over 9 years

This reminds me of SGR

Edark

over 9 years

TL:DR

Edark says

the first flip doesnt affect the second flip

Edark

over 9 years

"Because this is demonstrated in the very, very basic mathematical equation: 0.5*0.5 = 0.25, which is 25%."

This is not how you count "group probability" correctly. You're definition and how you apply of it is completely wrong.

You cant use "group probability" and connect it to single events in that change, since all "group probability" does is count how many outcomes there are after a certain number of choices and how likely each of these outcomes are(the ENTIRE CHAIN, not JUST A SINGLE EVENT)

its 25% that a coin flips head twice
its also 25% if a coin flips head and tails

whatever the coin flips NEXT, that specifik CHAIN with THOSE SPECIFIC EVENTS would have a 12,5% chance of happening

you cant apply it to a single instance in the chain, since it doesnt calculate that. If you break it down, the % just halves everytime, since EVERY SINGLE COINFLIP IS 50%

Orly

over 9 years

VictoriaEldor says

Every single Mafia equation that can be found online supports this.

deletedover 9 years

@ OP

You're a fallacy.

GOT EEEEEM

deletedover 9 years

Victoria this is 4th grade probability excercise taught to us in school.. why are we bringing this up here

VictoriaEldor

over 9 years

Edark says

You have no idea if you think what you're talking about is grouper probability

Demonstrate this then.

Edark

over 9 years

Edark says

the first flip doesnt affect the second flip

This comment explains enough IMO

Edark

over 9 years

"However, what I am talking about is grouped probability."

You have no idea if you think what you're talking about is grouper probability

VictoriaEldor

over 9 years

Edark says

you should read about the Monty Hall problem

From the looks of it that has precisely nothing to do with what I'm talking about. The Monty hall problem is a 1/3, where one door is opened up - if it turns out blue, then the Mafia is in one of the remaining two.

However, what I am talking about is grouped probability.

Instead of considering that we are rolling a 1/4, we are rolling two 1/2s, the probability that you guess correctly on the first attempt is 1/2.
The probability you guess correctly on the second, however, is not 1/2.

Because this is demonstrated in the very, very basic mathematical equation: 0.5*0.5 = 0.25, which is 25%.

Similarly, if we were using the Monty Hall argument, we take two 0.33333s~ and then use the multiplication symbol again (if multiplying below 0, it is treated as a division sum).

For 0.33*0.33 = 0.1089, or rounded to be 11%.

For our purpose, we are suggesting that our bet is that we are going to hit Mafia two times, given both of these sums. Every single Mafia equation that can be found online supports this.

Probability theory both supports this and demonstrates evidence.

I have provided data that can give people sample sizes up to any number they wish (millions if need be!)

And I have tested it myself with the coinflips and posted the evidence on the first page.

If someone rolls as Mafia 4 Times, or 5 Times, they are extremely unlikely to roll again.

Escurai

over 9 years

Sileath has figured out the world's secrets

Edark

over 9 years

you should read about the Monty Hall problem

Edark

over 9 years

the first flip doesnt affect the second flip

Orly

over 9 years

u guys smokin too much dank kush

VictoriaEldor

over 9 years

UniversalStudios says

VictoriaEldor says

The issue is that these events are memorable in the first place. You can easily remember the times when these things did happen, but what about the cases where things went exactly as expected?

Well, it's simple.

It was just another unremarkable day.

A core part of this site used to be solidify your town play so your mafia play had a core. This site is completely misguided in appealing to clears in favor of winning games as individuals. If you role mafia in 3 games and do the exact same thing in all 3, it doesn't matter that you have 3 consecutive games as a reference, every player should have picked up a tell, read, something that they missed in order for this player to be successful.

I've already told you in another of these threads that math is not the key to mafia. Meta is a reflection of who you are as a person and that used to come across in most tables which is why it's a thing. I'll say it again and again until it gets through everyone's skull: BEHAVIOR DOES NOT OCCUR IN A VACUUM AND THUS USING META WILL EITHER FORCE PEOPLE TO PLAY BETTER, OR BECOME A RELIABLE TOOL FOR DETERMINING A PLAYER'S ALIGNMENT.

I'm confused, in this instance, "meta" doesn't matter. Because people do not need to rely on arbitrary tells, reads and etcetera if they were using this tactic?

The only possibility is that people would deliberately grudge those who did it, which in itself is meta.

deletedover 9 years

haha sick thread bro

UniversalStudios

over 9 years

VictoriaEldor says

The issue is that these events are memorable in the first place. You can easily remember the times when these things did happen, but what about the cases where things went exactly as expected?

Well, it's simple.

It was just another unremarkable day.

A core part of this site used to be solidify your town play so your mafia play had a core. This site is completely misguided in appealing to clears in favor of winning games as individuals. If you role mafia in 3 games and do the exact same thing in all 3, it doesn't matter that you have 3 consecutive games as a reference, every player should have picked up a tell, read, something that they missed in order for this player to be successful.

I've already told you in another of these threads that math is not the key to mafia. Meta is a reflection of who you are as a person and that used to come across in most tables which is why it's a thing. I'll say it again and again until it gets through everyone's skull: BEHAVIOR DOES NOT OCCUR IN A VACUUM AND THUS USING META WILL EITHER FORCE PEOPLE TO PLAY BETTER, OR BECOME A RELIABLE TOOL FOR DETERMINING A PLAYER'S ALIGNMENT.

VictoriaEldor

over 9 years

IAmRobik says

LOLOLOL. THIS GUY IS TRYING TO VALIDATE MARTINGALING HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/martingale.asp

You could construe me as demonstrating this kind of thing exists as informing the site owners of a design flaw.

VictoriaEldor

over 9 years

The issue is that these events are memorable in the first place. You can easily remember the times when these things did happen, but what about the cases where things went exactly as expected?

Well, it's simple.

It was just another unremarkable day.

UniversalStudios

over 9 years

Meta foses aren't gambles, they should be legit "he did x before and you shouldn't be stupid and not punish him for it". About 2 months ago I was playing FP with a guy that rolled mafia 3 times and in all 3 he claimed mafia. It was ignored twice, however he still ended up being lynched in the second game. He then rolled town and alluded to it but acknowledged he shouldn't do it, but I switched account in the 5th game and he did it, but I wasn't able to get him lynched for it.

My point being, stop applying math in cases that aren't related to math, you look dumb and don't make sense.