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useless role win probability stats

almost 10 years

--scan complete (3600000-3630000)--

1584 scanned, 16133 skipped, 17717 total

flags = {"minplayers":12,"maxplayers":12,"rank":2,"nocustom":1,"requiredtown":7,"requiredmafia":3,"requiredthirds":2}

wins = village 619 mafia 595 third 340 nobody 28 unknown 2

role: won / played (win%)

villager: 12 / 36 (33.33%)

doctor: 103 / 289 (35.64%)

nurse: 101 / 281 (35.94%)

surgeon: 102 / 235 (43.40%)

bodyguard: 107 / 256 (41.80%)

cop: 134 / 372 (36.02%)

insane: 17 / 43 (39.53%)

confused: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

paranoid: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

naive: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

lazy: 11 / 35 (31.43%)

watcher: 97 / 251 (38.65%)

tracker: 125 / 301 (41.53%)

detective: 124 / 279 (44.44%)

snoop: 4 / 10 (40.00%)

journalist: 97 / 246 (39.43%)

mortician: 0 / 1 (0.00%)

pathologist: 0 / 2 (0.00%)

vigil: 100 / 266 (37.59%)

sheriff: 111 / 261 (42.53%)

deputy: 104 / 273 (38.10%)

drunk: 100 / 281 (35.59%)

sleepwalker: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

civilian: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

miller: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

suspect: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

leader: 0 / 3 (0.00%)

bulletproof: 115 / 270 (42.59%)

bleeder: 89 / 233 (38.20%)

bomb: 101 / 251 (40.24%)

granny: 117 / 241 (48.55%)

hunter: 74 / 243 (30.45%)

crier: 98 / 254 (38.58%)

invisible: 15 / 33 (45.45%)

governor: 119 / 291 (40.89%)

telepath: 1 / 11 (9.09%)

agent: 114 / 270 (42.22%)

celebrity: 102 / 257 (39.69%)

loudmouth: 0 / 1 (0.00%)

mason: 123 / 300 (41.00%)

templar: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

shrink: 4 / 12 (33.33%)

samurai: 0 / 6 (0.00%)

jailer: 107 / 267 (40.07%)

chef: 122 / 289 (42.21%)

turncoat: 0 / 4 (0.00%)

enchantress: 0 / 5 (0.00%)

priest: 92 / 219 (42.01%)

trapper: 108 / 249 (43.37%)

baker: 96 / 266 (36.09%)

ghoul: 97 / 262 (37.02%)

party: 82 / 244 (33.61%)

penguin: 104 / 260 (40.00%)

judge: 5 / 5 (100.00%)

gallis: 1 / 1 (100.00%)

treestump: 94 / 245 (38.37%)

secretary: 1 / 5 (20.00%)

virgin: 86 / 265 (32.45%)

blacksmith: 106 / 247 (42.91%)

oracle: 102 / 269 (37.92%)

dreamer: 101 / 260 (38.85%)

lightkeeper: 84 / 247 (34.01%)

keymaker: 86 / 259 (33.20%)

gunsmith: 99 / 259 (38.22%)

mimic: 11 / 32 (34.38%)

santa: 126 / 294 (42.86%)

caroler: 102 / 241 (42.32%)

mafia: 0 / 1 (0.00%)

silencer: 44 / 143 (30.77%)

blinder: 0 / 5 (0.00%)

sniper: 59 / 152 (38.82%)

illusionist: 51 / 134 (38.06%)

saboteur: 0 / 4 (0.00%)

yakuza: 11 / 49 (22.45%)

consigliere: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

godfather: 1 / 5 (20.00%)

framer: 4 / 7 (57.14%)

hooker: 51 / 134 (38.06%)

disguiser: 55 / 167 (32.93%)

actress: 41 / 154 (26.62%)

tailor: 67 / 182 (36.81%)

informant: 56 / 148 (37.84%)

strongman: 54 / 153 (35.29%)

janitor: 43 / 138 (31.16%)

interrogator: 67 / 177 (37.85%)

whisperer: 2 / 7 (28.57%)

spy: 62 / 162 (38.27%)

lawyer: 3 / 6 (50.00%)

forger: 60 / 169 (35.50%)

stalker: 66 / 153 (43.14%)

enforcer: 1 / 3 (33.33%)

quack: 3 / 7 (42.86%)

poisoner: 56 / 142 (39.44%)

driver: 52 / 136 (38.24%)

gramps: 55 / 137 (40.15%)

interceptor: 49 / 140 (35.00%)

fiddler: 51 / 156 (32.69%)

witch: 62 / 167 (37.13%)

ventriloquist: 73 / 154 (47.40%)

voodoo: 63 / 147 (42.86%)

thief: 1 / 2 (50.00%)

paralyzer: 62 / 150 (41.33%)

paparazzi: 3 / 4 (75.00%)

scout: 61 / 150 (40.67%)

associate: 65 / 142 (45.77%)

fabricator: 69 / 156 (44.23%)

lookout: 56 / 143 (39.16%)

ninja: 50 / 144 (34.72%)

hitman: 49 / 128 (38.28%)

arsonist: 62 / 140 (44.29%)

terrorist: 45 / 154 (29.22%)

angel: 1 / 190 (0.53%)

siren: 0 / 1 (0.00%)

monk: 24 / 167 (14.37%)

cultist: 82 / 220 (37.27%)

cthulhu: 0 / 156 (0.00%)

zombie: 0 / 1 (0.00%)

fool: 43 / 169 (25.44%)

lover: 0 / 195 (0.00%)

lyncher: 14 / 176 (7.95%)

killer: 21 / 187 (11.23%)

clockmaker: 46 / 156 (29.49%)

survivor: 1 / 167 (0.60%)

warlock: 0 / 8 (0.00%)

mistletoe: 16 / 163 (9.82%)

prophet: 0 / 152 (0.00%)

alien: 8 / 165 (4.85%)

werewolf: 11 / 165 (6.67%)

amnesiac: 0 / 177 (0.00%)

anarchist: 16 / 167 (9.58%)

creepygirl: 1 / 4 (25.00%)

traitor: 0 / 1 (0.00%)

admirer: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

maid: 0 / 184 (0.00%)

autocrat: 3 / 8 (37.50%)

politician: 0 / 5 (0.00%)

mastermind: 53 / 184 (28.80%)

host: 0 / 0 (NaN%)

--end--‏

very use
9
less
9
ful
almost 10 years
updated game with 30k game scan (only 1.5k turned out sandbox-style)

angel/vivor still seem unusually low, not sure what's wrong with the code or if they just really had -poor luck. if you'd like to try and check for yourself link above

takes too long to scan though i dont have the patience
almost 10 years

rexregum says

Where are you pulling this data from


http://71.88.131.243:4444/files/js/misc%23!/em-winprob.js
almost 10 years
Where are you pulling this data from
almost 10 years
we can now deduce that prophet sucks
almost 10 years

Foxie says

i fixed the 3rd problem and added some flags to count only 12 player (7/3/2), unranked, non-custom games

ill leave that running for a few hours through 100,000 games and update op with those results




when those data come in could you present it in a different format for the sake of sorting
almost 10 years
i fixed the 3rd problem and added some flags to count only 12 player (7/3/2), unranked, non-custom games

ill leave that running for a few hours through 100,000 games and update op with those results


lelriplyl says

amn has a 0% win rate?
I'm guessing they start counting as their new role once they decide to amn someone.


win was calculated based on the winning role (3rds) or party, grabbed from the "x wins!" message

since "Amnesiac wins!" is never a possibility and amnesiac doesn't belong to town/mafia, amnesiac cannot win as amnesiac

if I were to track entire game progressions I could determine whether someone starting as amn won, but I don't think it's worth it for something i just did for fun and it wouldn't scale well with 10,000 game scans


Floor says

Also, this isn't whether "XXX won" but rather if "XXX survived", isn't it? Because I seriously doubt angel only won 1/128.



Foxie says

3rd party win stats might be slightly broken since i only checked a single win, especially vivor since it always joint wins


angel also joint wins, having an angel win means angel was literally the only winner
almost 10 years
Also, this isn't whether "XXX won" but rather if "XXX survived", isn't it? Because I seriously doubt angel only won 1/128.
almost 10 years
remove maid please it's a BS role
also please excel or matlab this data.
deletedalmost 10 years
amn has a 0% win rate?
I'm guessing they start counting as their new role once they decide to amn someone.
deletedalmost 10 years
REMOVE CTHULU
almost 10 years
I can't read any of these statistics because they aren't in a colorful, graphic presentation.
almost 10 years
3rd party win stats might be slightly broken since i only checked a single win, especially vivor since it always joint wins
almost 10 years
odd i see survivors win all the time

same with lovers
almost 10 years
When you have a better chance of winning as blue than as cop
almost 10 years
in thief, whisperer, and paparazzi

the roles you'd expect to have the highest win%s
almost 10 years
Now I know where to put my role probs
almost 10 years
Number munchers