It's actually essentially a scumhunting setup, just with Cult instead of Mafia. Mechanics have very little effect after the Deputy shot, other than the Shrink self shrinking. Lazy Cop is unlikely to have much effect other than hopefully clearing one more person of being the CL.
Also: It has an unimaginable evil full of tentacles and so it's automatically amazing.
I wasn't aware that Survivor joints so much. I figured Mafia kill them most of the time when they can. If we had joint statistics then perhaps these statistics would become more accurate, because it would show how often mafia and town joint with Survivor, and therefore, sacrifice a large portion of their points for winning.
No it's not. And I grabbed 60% by roughly doubling survivor percentage, which is just a guess.
Think about it this way. You have survivor who wins one game with town and one game with mafia. Even though the statistics will show that as 2 wins for survivor out of 4 because of how the system works, (therefore 50% win for vivor and 25/25) survivor actually won all the games.
Survivor is incredibly hard to not joint with. This means that you will almost always get half points for your win, for statistically about the same chances of winning (about 50/50 if you ignore warlock). And that is less points that on a balanced setups.
Sometimes you get lucky and survivor dies, and sometimes 90% of the table loses because warlock got lucky. There's more chances to "get lucky" but on average the point payout is worse
I can't calculate joints. Where did you pull the 60% from?
If you include joints, then it actually makes it even easier to win a trophy on ALIO compared to 60PA setups, because you will end up winning more of your games due to jointing while still grabbing a decent number of points for it.
Runners can make their choice, but I know what I'm running on (not ALIO--imo, the tradeoff is not worth it--a 1/4 chance every game for a win is pretty risky when I can capitalize on a 1/2 chance every game better; I can do more to ensure my win more of the time).
If you TL;DR'd my post that is quoted here, then what I'm saying is that if you run solely on ALIO, you have slightly better odds to win a trophy compared to people running on 60 point average (PA) setups. The number of points per heart is almost equivalent to that of 60PA setups...however, if you run solely on ALIO, you need 4-6 less wins in the Round entirely.
Really, like many people have said, it banks on you getting lucky at some point. You don't need too much of it however if you're even moderately skilled.
Someone playing ALIO only has to win 82% of their games compared to anyone running on the standard setup with a 60 point average. ALIO has a 104.25 point average (barring joints). That means if someone is running solely on one setup, they need 28-29 wins on ALIO, compared to the 33-34 wins which those who run on 60 point average setups need (to reach 2000 points). However, the chances of them winning that many games are significantly lower than any other setup; the chance of playing ALIO and winning from a purely mechanical standpoint based on the setup's current statistics (11/21/14) are at 24.25% (3 total percent of ALIO's statistics are missing, however--either due to decimals or joints--we can safely round this number up to 25%), compared to any 60 point average setup which is always 50%.
So it's actually a decent tradeoff. I retract my previous post. Let's see what happens; should be interesting if somebody does in fact decide to run entirely on ALIO.
I wanna thank my mom, my dad, my friends and my biggest inspiration on this site, the almighty Pranay for making this gold happening. I have now comped two 10 players setups which I think both are lots of fun!
