doc dies n1, cop gets guilty n1, and outs it:
guilty dies, town goes into 3 way lylo with no clears (33% chance of winning)
doc dies n1, cop gets guilty n1, but doesnt out it:
25% chance cop dies n2 ( 40% *50% chance town wins )
75% chance cop lives ( 50% chance town wins )
.25*.2+.75*.5= 42.5% chance town wins
+Kd