Epicmafia

N1 Vig in Reverse Maf is optimal.

deletedalmost 7 years

There is an EXTREMELY popular opinion that n1 vig is a noob/idiotic move.

Firstly, this is based on the actual truth that all noobs are going to n1 as vig and that (due to this popular peer pressured opinion) most experienced players will kill no one n1 as vig. The issue is that just because all noobs would do it and most experienced players wouldn't doesn't, in itself, prove that the majority who no-kill are in the right.

I will now prove why the minority of experienced players who do n1 as vig are not idiotic gamblers but wise gamblers: There are 10 players overall. 6 of them are ones you want to kill n1 (traitors+fool). Note that it is actually a 66.67% shot you are taking and not a 60% shot because you know you yourself are not one of the 6 and therefore it'a a 6/9 shot in the dark and not a 6/10).

The argument that you can n1 stalker and unrank the game (which is a 11.11% chance) or that you can kill the masoned player and/or the same as stalker both which hurt town is just not how you should analyse a gamble. You don't think "oh no this can go wrong so therefore it's unwise" you should think which is more likely; it going right or wrong and use this combined with the extent of profit in deciding to go for it or not. In reality killing off a mason isn't too bad n1 unless the stalker kills the other one too. The only person you could kill n1 who really will impact your chances of winning negatively by a huge percentage is the tracker as you now have heavily nerfed the information with which the masons can operate AROUND the possibility of masoning the stalker.

So, in reality, the stalker and the tracker are the only game-hampering kills you could make n1 and since you can still win easily-enough with tracker dead (especially with the skill level of most reverse maf players being hella low) you are only really needing to fear killing the stalker n1 or the same as the stalker kills which all in all is a 22.22% chance of failure in your shot.

So, taking ALL ANGLES of thinking into your frame of mind, n1ing as the vig is pretty much either helping you or not mattering too much 77.88% of the time.

deletedalmost 7 years

Greninja says

the point i'm getting at is that cloudminion in no context deserves pixels

The idea that pixels are something you can deserve is funny in and of itself

deletedalmost 7 years

UnknownGangster says

Recidivism says

This thread is like a manual explaining the physics and aerodynamics behind the cheap knockoff drone you bought for 7.99 at the gas station

Perhaps you should go and post discussion threads about the setups worth more then instead of wasting your time and energy posting on these 7.99 threads. :)

It's not a waste of I'm laughing at you, because it's jovial

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Greninja says

reverse mafia is the reason cloudminion got a trophy and then subsequently cared enough to mod. was it worth it? was it worth it at all?

I am confused how, in any way, this is relevant to whether or not n1ing as vig is an optimal or suboptimal decision.

deletedalmost 7 years

the point i'm getting at is that cloudminion in no context deserves pixels

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Recidivism says

This thread is like a manual explaining the physics and aerodynamics behind the cheap knockoff drone you bought for 7.99 at the gas station

Perhaps you should go and post discussion threads about the setups worth more then instead of wasting your time and energy posting on these 7.99 threads. :)

deletedalmost 7 years

Didn't he win his trophy on Ventage Point, the 14 player joke cluster-f*ck I made when I was 14

deletedalmost 7 years

reverse mafia is the reason cloudminion got a trophy and then subsequently cared enough to mod. was it worth it? was it worth it at all?

deletedalmost 7 years

This thread is like a manual explaining the physics and aerodynamics behind the cheap knockoff drone you bought for 7.99 at the gas station

deletedalmost 7 years

UnknownGangster says

Recidivism says

I quite literally cannot imagine anything more pointless than this in-depth analysis of optimal play in reverse mafia, a glorified chat room.

If you do not care about the setup's strategies then please don't open a post about it. This is not pointless and is indeed opposing the current meta and therefore is as far from pointless as a post about a setup's strategies can be.

It is extremely pointless. Reverse Mafia isn't even a game, because it is just everyone NLing and clicking randomly. It's an exercise in clicking buttons like a monkey. Congrats on your theory as to the optimal monkey button clicking strategy in a setup that isn't allowed to be competitive (where optimal play actually matters) because it is so incredibly stupid

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Leeroyy says

I would agree shooting n1 is optimal but only if traitors are actively trying to find who is town and get them killed.

In a lobby of traitors that sit back and just wait to get masoned without helping mafside find the town, shoot ing traitors doesn't benefit the town and increases the risk of mismasoning onto stalker.
Also in this scenario of lazy traitors, town can easily win from tracker obtaining reports and vig waiting patiently for the right shot to be seen, and masons do their thing. I think shooting n1 to only kill a traitor doesn't add much valuable advantages to the town to be worth the 22.22% chance of hitting traitor/fool.

So you would rather have a 100% probability of being useless then? :)

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Recidivism says

I quite literally cannot imagine anything more pointless than this in-depth analysis of optimal play in reverse mafia, a glorified chat room.

If you do not care about the setup's strategies then please don't open a post about it. This is not pointless and is indeed opposing the current meta and therefore is as far from pointless as a post about a setup's strategies can be.

deletedalmost 7 years

I quite literally cannot imagine anything more pointless than this in-depth analysis of optimal play in reverse mafia, a glorified chat room.

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Torreador says

I disagree on many levels.

First, as Leeroyy said, today's meta is to have traitors slack during d1 and most of the time d2, and actively masonhunt when it becomes close to 50/50 for masons. Which is a good strategy, minimizing reads for d1/d2, which helps the side with the information (Stalker) and doesn't help the side in the dark (Masons)

Second, there are two negative outcomes you forgot to mention :

-You can hit the mafia target, which is equivalent to committing suicide, in 1/8 of the cases. (if you hit stalker it doesn't count but it also sucks, if stalker is hitting you what you choose doesn't matter). One town down.

-You can hit the mason recruit, even if that recruit was fool or traitor. In 70% of the cases masons recruit usefully (aka not mismason, not tracker, not vig) and in those 70% cases it's 1/9 mis shot.

I have seen my fair share of gamestarts with 2 dead traitors (over all my alts i have 400 reverse games), and it doesn't help that much. The meat of the game is to avoid mismasoning and to kill stalker once you get reads. You can win small, but you can lose big by shooting.

TL/DR : Ignore this post and don't f***** shoot N1.

I think you forget that the masons can recruit the tracker or yourself including the kills when you say this "70%"

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Soluciones says

oh i just saw ure talking exclusively about reverse mafia. in that case i think the meta is not shooting day 1 not to waste ev1s time by possibly ending the game n unranking it

This post proves that the meta is wrong, so thanks for telling me the REASON I MADE THIS POST is true.

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Torreador says

I disagree on many levels.

First, as Leeroyy said, today's meta is to have traitors slack during d1 and most of the time d2, and actively masonhunt when it becomes close to 50/50 for masons. Which is a good strategy, minimizing reads for d1/d2, which helps the side with the information (Stalker) and doesn't help the side in the dark (Masons)

Second, there are two negative outcomes you forgot to mention :

-You can hit the mafia target, which is equivalent to committing suicide, in 1/8 of the cases. (if you hit stalker it doesn't count but it also sucks, if stalker is hitting you what you choose doesn't matter). One town down.

-You can hit the mason recruit, even if that recruit was fool or traitor. In 70% of the cases masons recruit usefully (aka not mismason, not tracker, not vig) and in those 70% cases it's 1/9 mis shot.

I have seen my fair share of gamestarts with 2 dead traitors (over all my alts i have 400 reverse games), and it doesn't help that much. The meat of the game is to avoid mismasoning and to kill stalker once you get reads. You can win small, but you can lose big by shooting.

TL/DR : Ignore this post and don't f***** shoot N1.

All I see is 'can vs cannot' rather than 'probably will' vs 'probably not'. If you can't handle gambling and uncertainty in your decision making process don't play Mafia.

Endorphins

almost 7 years

lmfao on discussing strats on like the oldest setup the site has.

Torreador

almost 7 years

I disagree on many levels.

First, as Leeroyy said, today's meta is to have traitors slack during d1 and most of the time d2, and actively masonhunt when it becomes close to 50/50 for masons. Which is a good strategy, minimizing reads for d1/d2, which helps the side with the information (Stalker) and doesn't help the side in the dark (Masons)

Second, there are two negative outcomes you forgot to mention :

-You can hit the mafia target, which is equivalent to committing suicide, in 1/8 of the cases. (if you hit stalker it doesn't count but it also sucks, if stalker is hitting you what you choose doesn't matter). One town down.

-You can hit the mason recruit, even if that recruit was fool or traitor. In 70% of the cases masons recruit usefully (aka not mismason, not tracker, not vig) and in those 70% cases it's 1/9 mis shot.

I have seen my fair share of gamestarts with 2 dead traitors (over all my alts i have 400 reverse games), and it doesn't help that much. The meat of the game is to avoid mismasoning and to kill stalker once you get reads. You can win small, but you can lose big by shooting.

TL/DR : Ignore this post and don't f***** shoot N1.

Leeroyy

almost 7 years

I would agree shooting n1 is optimal but only if traitors are actively trying to find who is town and get them killed.

In a lobby of traitors that sit back and just wait to get masoned without helping mafside find the town, shoot ing traitors doesn't benefit the town and increases the risk of mismasoning onto stalker.
Also in this scenario of lazy traitors, town can easily win from tracker obtaining reports and vig waiting patiently for the right shot to be seen, and masons do their thing. I think shooting n1 to only kill a traitor doesn't add much valuable advantages to the town to be worth the 22.22% chance of hitting traitor/fool.

deletedalmost 7 years

oh i just saw ure talking exclusively about reverse mafia. in that case i think the meta is not shooting day 1 not to waste ev1s time by possibly ending the game n unranking it

UnknownGangster

almost 7 years

Soluciones says

i dont play as vig much but i think u lose nothing by shooting n1

You lose something 32.34% of the time.

This 'loss' is not too significant if you kill off a mason and the other one survives n1 and you shouldn't even involve this into your equation of shooting or not as it's something you have no power over or ability to perceive. It's also not too significant if it's the tracker because you and the masons can play around it more often than not.

Only 22.22% of the time are you losing significantly by the shot (totally unranking game or dying n1 due to your shot to a kill that was happening anyway).

deletedalmost 7 years

i dont play as vig much but i think u lose nothing by shooting n1

deletedalmost 7 years

TLDR

Soluciones says

if u could make a tldr id give an opinion

n1ing as the vig is pretty much either helping you or not mattering too much 77.88% of the time.

deletedalmost 7 years

if u could make a tldr id give an opinion