Wrote the following strat for yakked doc play in "Don't Lose Your Gov" and would like feedback on it; lmk if there are flaws in my reasoning here.

First and foremost, it's my belief that doc should save N1, despite the fact that if they're yakked and save the maf kill, they've self sabotaged. Doc's chance of saving the maf kill (11%) multiplied by the likelihood that he's yakked (29%) is 3.2%; math says doc should save. (This may seem obvious, but I've had multiple in-game arguments over this, so explaining in these terms may help someone who doesn't get it.)

AS MAFIA:

IF TRACKER IS NOT YAKKED: >You have to be careful what you claim as yakked doc. Tracker can easily confirm your visits, and you can also out yourself based on who you kill. If you claim doc, you can't really kill outed clears without revealing that the doc wasn't on them, which casts suspicion back on you unless you can successfully claim that you were trying to out-WIFOM the mafia (which is a spurious claim at best). Wait until there are multiple clears that doc could defensibly be on to kill one of them. Alternatively, consider claiming BP. Be careful in employing this strategy - four bp claims is near or actual maf autolose in certain situations, especially if only one BP claims hit.[1] It's also dependent on being able to guess decently at who your partner is, or successfully push for NL.

[1]: 1) This is only likely to happen if gov is yakked (although possible with a yakked shrink who also wants to avoid being tested by tracker). Town will know both maf are claiming BP. The following explanations assume that tracker didn't track a yak and prematurely discover maf; in this scenario, you're pretty much doomed because town has a mislynch if you shot a BP N1, allowing them to lynch both remaining BPs; here, you should claim doc and just hope you don't get followed. If the tracker has a report on who got yakked and you killed a blue or shrink, claim BP as you normally would and then kill the tracker N2, as noted below.

A. If one BP is uncc'd hit, they're basically clear. This is town autowin: no matter whether they lynch the unhit BP on D1 or D2, they just lynch the mafia the other two days, and town wins by D3.

B. If maf cc's hit BP, mathematically (i.e. based entirely on the odds) this improves scum win chance to 14% (accounting for the 25% chance that tracker followed a yak; without this calculation, scum has 25% chance of success). If hit BP is lynched D1, tracker is killed at night, and the maf who claimed hit is lynched D2, it's a 50/50 on D3 between the remaining unhit BP claims. If mafia hit claim is lynched on D1, it's town autowin lynching the unhit BP claims.

C. If maf kill tracker N1, they mathematically have <75% win chance by both claiming BP (assuming 50/50 chance of NL vs D1 lynch (which is likely inaccurate), and a 25% chance that one of the real BPs is the shrink's clear). This is likely moderately off from the actual number, given that D1 maf don't know each other, and are thus more likely to get lynched than the facially apparent 50% likelihood.

• D1 for town is MYLO and if town NL, then N2 killing the blue leaves town in MYLO; if town lynches correctly D2, then N3 killing shrink leaves a relatively favorable three-way between the BP claims.
• If town lynches correctly D1, maf should usually kill the blue, resulting in a four-way between three BP claims and the shrink (who maf obviously should kill the following night, assuming D2 survival). (However, if one of the BP's is the shrink's clear, that brings it to a 50/50 between BP claims; this is a difficult situation, because the shrink and clear will likely form a voting bloc. Killing the shrink instead of blue is a fatal mistake here, because that then confirms the shrink's clear to the blue and other BP; instead, try to turn the shrink and clear against the other BP of ambiguous status. Shooting the cleared BP also fails because should the other BP be lynched, the N3 kill of cleared & hit BP / Shrink / Blue still leaves two voters to hang you.)

D. If maf kill blue or shrink N1, they have <60% of winning by doubleclaiming BP (again assuming that there is 25% chance that tracker outs incriminating report, leading to a correct lynch). In all of these examples, tracker should be your N2 kill, and you should then play as recommended under Point C, as if you'd instead killed tracker.

IF TRACKER IS YAKKED: >Tracker can confirm you as doc based on a visit that didn't happen. Potential downside is that if one goes down, so does the other; use carefully. Additionally, if gov is alive, it'll be difficult to kill him without drawing suspicion; this may be mitigated when tracker outs, providing an excuse for doc, but that's a gamble. One potential approach is for yakked doc to claim BP, maf to NK N2, doc claim hit, and tracker claim to have been tracking them as they didn't visit anyone; this should only be used if gov is dead, or both doc and tracker will immediately fall under suspicion - why would maf target a BP instead of gov, when doc hasn't claimed (except, perhaps, in an attempt to hit a hiding town doc, which would still be irrational because it would help narrow down which one (if not both) of the BPs had been yakked)?