In real life, scum hunting works because there is evidence and little tells from body language people use in order to find out who the scum is. What is happening in games is that people are just playing the game wasting their time scum hunting when in the end, they end up either voting the person they dislike the most or think village is scum.
What I am saying is rather you scum hunt or not, you get the same outcomes as flipping a coin. This means scum hunting isn't working because if it did, village would have a slight advantage over mafia.
Lets look at a setup like kill the mods. 2 Templar, 3 Blue, and 2 Mafia. It's literally just like a remake of the most traditional 1 cop 1 doc 2 maf 3 blue setup. Unlike that setup where the cop can find out who the bad guys are, the game starts in a misslynch and the 2 templars know who each other are and can claim day 1 without being killed or else the other mafia will have to die day 2.
Day 1. Killing templars can happen because people will keep their mouth shut. If templars claim day 1 and both templars are forced to claim before village sides, this prevents mafia from claiming and templars get an advantage, though they will both die and lylo could potentially be between three people who aren't clear.
Templars claiming day 1 = 2/5 chance of killing a mafia
Templars not claiming day 1 = 2/7 chance of killing a mafia
Option two is always what players choose, I kid you not. Competitive everyone. This is what kind of players play competitive.
Day 2 is a special day because templars can out and if one templar is dead, then templars will never really be clearable and mafia will easily be able to cc a templar.
Single templar is cced = 1/2 chance of killing mafia
Both templars alive = 1/3 chance of killing mafia
Odds of mafia killing templars night 1 = 1/4
Just a note that this day is lylo and so is the day after it. Let's look at the odds that village has on its side for each scenario here. Keep in mind about day 1. The first option assures a templar will die that night. Keep in mind that once templars claim day 1, the other templar is clear day 2.
Both Templars Claim day 1 = 2/5 chance to vote mafia
Day 2 single templar alive and cleared = 1/2 chance to vote mafia
Day 3 no templars = 1/3 chance to vote mafia
Day 2, if mafia didn't die day 1, the odds of voting mafia day 2 will be 1/2 because 2 mafia and 2 villagers, with 1 clear templar. Lets add these odds together. Village only needs to land on mafia twice to win.
(33+50)/2 = 41.5% chance village wins from killing mafia in the last 2 days
(40+50)/2 = 45% chance village wins from killing mafia in the first 2 days
(40+33)/2 = 36.5% chance village wins from killing a mafia day 1, then day 3
Now lets work out the worse case scenario. Village templars don't claim and everyone just chats. We will give templars the benefit of letting them both live to see day 2, but, we will not give them the benefit of the mafia claiming out loud.
Day 1 = 2/7 chance
Day 2 = 2/3 chance
Day 3 = 1/2 chance
58% chance village wins from day 2 and day 3 mafia kills
39% chance village wins from killing mafia the first and last day
47% chance of village winning from killing mafia the first two days.
So wait... you are telling me that the strategy of templars not claiming out loud day 1 is actually more likely to work? So wait... you are telling me that no matter what strategy I use, the odds of village winning through both strategies is about 42 or greater just but dumb luck?
Yes. In fact, using the second strategy is so much greater that the win ratio should be much higher then 42 percent, unless templars somehow found a way to let mafia know they are templars, without the villagers knowing. Oh wait... The win ratio of village to mafia is 42 to 57, mafia being 57. But this isn't right, doesn't everyone use the second strategy? Yes, but, they are forgetting that mafia has a 2/5 or 1/2 chance of killing a templar night 1, so the second strategy only works extremely well, half the time, and extremely bad the other half of the time.
But we still have the first strategy, right? Then why is the win ratio equal to when I add the percent of mafia getting lynched, then divide by three, rounds to 42%, the exact village win ratio that already exist?
Simple answer. Because scum hunting didn't dictate anything, nor did using the second strategy. Only dumb luck. The second strategy is even more ignorant then putting faith in scum hunting, because you leave everyone in the dark except the mafia.
