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Probability

pranay7744
almost 10 years

Giga , Jasprar, Jericho, Gennehfarrxd, Kino and pereking are playing poker.

Jasprar has Ace of Diamonds and Ace of Clubs

Jasprar was informed by Jericho that he saw Giga holding a King of diamonds, unfortunately he could not see his other card.

rest of jasprar's friends are going to help him win, so they all folded and told jasprar what they were holding.

Jericho has 3 of Clubs and 7 of spade

Gennehfarrxd has 4 spades and 8 of diamonds

Kino has 10 of hearts and 9 of clubs

Pereking has 2 of spades and Queen of hearts

Giga put all in

Jasprar is terrible at probability, but he has a policy. If the probability of winning is more than 64.3% he will call.

Since he is bad at probability, he calls arcbell to calculate the probability.

What will arcbell say? Call or Fold?

shimmi
almost 10 years
arcbell says fold because he's a coward
Hibiki
almost 10 years
the %s change since you know which cards cant come up after per-flop. it's not just about which cards jasper has
Evol
almost 10 years
yea, and even then since technically you can have any other number of possible cards the likelihood jasper would win would be well over 80%. I mean maybe you'd assume giga would have at least a king or ace but yea..
Giga13
almost 10 years

Evol says


giga is right, this is the best possible hand jasper can have


You mean it's the best possible hand Giga can have (Jasprar is the one with rockets) but lol I was close

ftr if you're wondering how I did this I did calculations for the probability of each kind of winning hand occurring but I erased them since I screwed up somewhere and just guessed a close percentage from what I had
Evol
almost 10 years

giga is right, this is the best possible hand jasper can have
Giga13
almost 10 years

pranay7744 says

it is pre flop obviously. and the odds are not 80% at all. the flop, turn and river can be anything.


I would like your solution please
deletedalmost 10 years
how come i wasn't invited to play poker
pranay7744
almost 10 years
well jackattack, it is a very bad joke, because i have mentioned in the OP that they are playing it.
jack
almost 10 years
What's the probability they're all playing poker together in the first place though
pranay7744
almost 10 years
@giga- stay with what is given in the question. If you want i can give you the solution
pranay7744
almost 10 years
it is pre flop obviously. and the odds are not 80% at all. the flop, turn and river can be anything.
Goodbar
almost 10 years
never underestimate pranay
Giga13
almost 10 years

Goodbar says

is this a trick question because it doesn't address whether or not there are already cards out on the table (aka flop turn river)?


If it's a trick question then this whole thing is stupid because there would be multiple answers so I just stayed with what I was given
Giga13
almost 10 years

jagger says

Yeah assuming is a great thing to do when you're playing with probability


So is staying within the parameter of the puzzle and the information that I've been given, but that's just me
Goodbar
almost 10 years
is this a trick question because it doesn't address whether or not there are already cards out on the table (aka flop turn river)?
deletedalmost 10 years
Yeah assuming is a great thing to do when you're playing with probability
Giga13
almost 10 years

jagger says

What kind of poker idiot


We assume some form Texas Hold 'Em since each person only has two hole cards that were private to themselves at the start of the hand, along with the fact that no further information was given

Also phones aren't allowed at the poker table and cheating with all of them would get them all removed from the table except for Giga and maybe Jasprar lol
deletedalmost 10 years
What kind of poker idiot
Giga13
almost 10 years
Jasprar's odds of beating Giga are almost if not always over 80% I believe

Giga's odds of winning with any other card along with his K♦ in his hand amount to less than 20%

The best possible circumstance in this for Giga (whether he knows it or not) at the time is for his second card to be K♥. If you're looking from Giga's pov then K♥ or K♠ would be his best two cards (unbeknownst as to what the other players have/had)
edukated
almost 10 years
I hate the hand of Bullets. I never win with that hand. ever.
Hateyon
almost 10 years
with such a good hand and the fact that giga has gone all in, jasp should be calling anyway

jasprar sucks at poker
Iceaac
almost 10 years
when you have the [redacted] best hand in texas holdem you call any [redacted] all in pre-flop

Giga would need to hit runner-runner to stay alive
deletedalmost 10 years
idkf.