Back to General Discussion

Flipping a coin

pranay7744
about 10 years

If there is a clear on a lylo/mylo and he has absolutely no idea who the mafia is, and he decides to say

"im just gonna flip a coin" and hammers someone

He says that metaphorically and obviously does not flip a coin in reality.

He says that just to explain his state of mind

He feels the need to say that because he thinks it is a face saving phrase

1- He deserves the ogi vio because we have a rule that says he should, and we have numerous precedents (law is to follow precedents)

2- He obviously meant it as a joke and should not get the vio

3- He deserves the vio even if he meant it as a joke because even though he is not flipping a coin, effectively his hammer is not based on who is mafia, and is similar to a coin flip result.

4- Even if the person is hammering based on no reads and is thinking it is similar to a coinflip, there always is an element of intuition which is a function of our subconscious calculations which is done based on the information we gather from all our senses. So the person actually ends up hammering who his subconscious thinks is mafia.

5- Give no vio because the one who filed the report did not mention the timestamps

6- Give benefit of doubt because the reported guy is friend of mod

Steven
about 10 years
Oh okay
TweIve
about 10 years

Steven says


TweIve says


Steven says

Say for example if you have hammered only 1% of the time correctly.


I'm pretty sure this isn't possible even if you try really, really hard lmao.


It's actually really simple. If you are consistently better than a coin flip, just flip your reads and you will do worse than a coin flip


I was talking about only hammering right 1% of the time. Worse than coinflip is obviously possible.
deletedabout 10 years
Idk man, I think it's pretty easy:

Steven
about 10 years

TweIve says


Steven says

Say for example if you have hammered only 1% of the time correctly.


I'm pretty sure this isn't possible even if you try really, really hard lmao.


It's actually really simple. If you are consistently better than a coin flip, just flip your reads and you will do worse than a coin flip
TweIve
about 10 years

Steven says

Say for example if you have hammered only 1% of the time correctly.


I'm pretty sure this isn't possible even if you try really, really hard lmao.
deletedabout 10 years
I propose Solution 8: Tell him to use the power of the Tarot next time.
Steven
about 10 years
I propose solution 7: the person is not really flipping a coin because the mafia have entered his subconscious and made him hammer the town player
Steven
about 10 years

TweIve says


Slow says

i mean statistically i'd rather trust a coinflip than some players' reads


A read is statistically proven to be better than a coinflip. (I do setup balancing and %s)

Steven is probably more likely to be decisive in lylo than me, yeah.


No, not if your reads are wrong more often. Say for example if you have hammered only 1% of the time correctly.

Realistically speaking of course, you're right
TweIve
about 10 years

Slow says

i mean statistically i'd rather trust a coinflip than some players' reads


A read is statistically proven to be better than a coinflip. (I do setup balancing and %s)

Steven is probably more likely to be decisive in lylo than me, yeah.
Steven
about 10 years
Pranay is this the thread we were waiting for before that you said would entertain
deletedabout 10 years
6. Seems like the fairest solution.
Steven
about 10 years
Hypothetically speaking if your win rate is really low not flipping a coin could be suboptimal ;)
deletedabout 10 years
i mean statistically i'd rather trust a coinflip than some players' reads
Steven
about 10 years
I didn't mean it literally pranay. I just meant that statistically speaking, no hammer is sure to be mafia, even if you believe so.
pranay7744
about 10 years
replace steven by system, because he is more likely to not know the mafia.
deletedabout 10 years

pranay7744 says

now assume it is gold heart game, with bear and shacky as ccs, and whoever wins gets gold, whoever loses gets 4th. and steven says "im just gonna flip a coin"


i don't really see steven picking up the javamafia sport again but that's a wild scenario either way
pranay7744
about 10 years
now assume it is gold heart game, with bear and shacky as ccs, and whoever wins gets gold, whoever loses gets 4th. and steven says "im just gonna flip a coin"
Sims
about 10 years
Well if he clearly didn't flip a coin he doesn't deserve a vio for jokingly saying he did, imo.
SystemOverload
about 10 years
5, 5 is the right answer.
pranay7744
about 10 years

Steven says

4 really but probably 5.

Everyone flips coins in the game of mafia, if you get what I mean. And if something is understood to be a joke, then they don't get violations


i never flip a coin. may be you do. i always am sure about my reads. be it wrong or right.
Steven
about 10 years
4 really but probably 5.

Everyone flips coins in the game of mafia, if you get what I mean. And if something is understood to be a joke, then they don't get violations
deletedabout 10 years
i for one think joking about my mafia games, especially in a lylo context, is unacceptable and I swiftly punish it whenever possible.
pranay7744
about 10 years
i clearly mentioned that he didnt flip a coin in reality. but he thinks it is like a coinflip (his hammer)
Sims
about 10 years
option 2 or 4 imo. unless you can prove that he actually flipped a coin, it's more likely he was using it as a joke so he can deflect any anger towards him if he mishammers