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All about Hypos [In-depth]

over 9 years

This directed mainly at classic/FP.

After playing EM for quite some time now, I felt inspired to post this thread, which discusses a highly misunderstood maneuver that is often seen as game throwing to the untrained eye. This is my attempt to train you, and feel free to add your views and opinions at the bottom. Claiming cop as blue d1. GT? Hypo? First off, most people I play with, both newer and more experienced, don't seem to realize exactly what hypo is. Hypo is when everyone claims a role (in this game mode cop) with a made up report. If done correctly, the real cop has a chance to out a potentially vital report before he dies. Some of the benefits of everyone hypo d1:

  • Cop gets real report out. This can be important if he is killed n2, and adds a confirmed clear.

    • If pr is un cc'd, and cop's report wasn't on pr, then you have 2 un cc'd, and better odds than if you didn't hypo.
    • If cop's report was on maf, then you can lynch maf and you have better odds than if you didn't hypo.
    • If cop's report was on pr, then it's the same as if you didn't hypo, aka no downside to not hypo.
    • If for some reason cop doesn't die n2, then congratulations! You have accomplished the goal of a hypo, to have cop live to d2 with 2 reports. An impressive feat, considering you as town did that without any special powers!
  • Mafia could possibly slip up.

    • Later in the game, what they want to say may not be the direction that their hypo was in, which could prevent them from claiming cop.
    • Because the mafia can't communicate that day, they may do something silly like bus partner. People just don't know how to react.
    • If one or both maf don't participate in the hypo, it can be seen as scummy, especially if someone educated on hypos (like you!) alerts that hypo's can only help town.
    • Great confusion for maf. Most of the time it is hard to distinguish the reports as real or fake, unless one of the villy claims someone other than you or your maf partner to be maf. More on that explained below.
  • Works in almost all scenarios of Fancy Pants.

    • If doc: Works as normal.
    • If orc: If orc dies n1, then play game regularly. Hypo not needed, but can still be good on case by case basis. Otherwise, it works as normal.
    • If gs: No need for hypo. Play as normal.
    • If bomb: Bomb has a chance to confuse enemies. If bomb guilties a maf with his report, then theres a scenario for bomb kill. Bomb can also choose to act normal with an inno report if you think that will lead to a greater chance of you being killed.

Of course, an in-depth guide that didn't include some possible weaknesses wouldn't be worth it's salt (BB reference anyone?!?). Listed below are some extremely minor cons.

  • People don't always do it. People don't understand it's benefits and we can prevent that by spreading this information to the masses.
  • Maf can technically gain information if the hypo isn't done properly. Eg: Blue guilities another blue, so maf knows that person isn't cop. More explained below.

Wow Kellyn, that's really convincing evidence for hypo's! But what should I do for the hypo? Well, I'll tell you readers! It's really simple.

Cop should out real report (duh). As blue/pr, its usually safe to just say someone else is inno. The dust will be cleared the next day, so we want to try and prevent easy clues for the mafia. The only way maf can gain an advantage is if you inno a maf or you guilty a blue. Either of those can prove that you are not the real cop, but the odds of inno'ing a maf (2/5) vs. guilitying an inno (3/5) show that it is safer to say inno. If you are bomb, you can go with a guilty vote to try and increase odds of town winning. As maf, there isn't really much you can do other than to go with it and identify fake reports to try and increase odds. In most scenarios, the odds of villy winning won't increase that much.

If you are more Logos or math-driven like me, you can click the link below to take you to a plethora of calculations from every scenario possible, proving that hypo's are worth the trouble. If my math is wrong, tell me and I'll fix it.

http://pastebin.com/Fn3ieWmq

I get the numbers to be around 6.9% more games won with hypo, on average, not including reads/scumhunts

For some reason, some people think that claiming cop as part of a hypo is considered gt, especially if you are the only one doing it because other people in the game don't know about it. I personally think this is because they are not knowledgeable in this subject, and they automatically assume it's GT, just because they don't understand it. Sort of like how newer players don't understand the concept of bussing right off the bat, so they think their maf partner has gone nuts! I added a poll to gather your opinions about this, and to also bait you into reading this thread ;) I would love to hear your opinions on this matter.

In conclusion, hypo's are seriously misunderstood creatures, but can be used effectively by town.

Did you feel informed?
5
No. (put reasons)
2
Yes, but I won't try this (put why)
0
Yes, and I will try this!
over 9 years
hypo'ing in fancy pants is worthless. All it does is help mafia.

Cop having a smaller chance of dying for 2 reports > Cop having an increased chance of dying for one confirmed report
over 9 years

Devante says

however your idea is bad because all hypoing does is narrow down the real cop, and nothing else


It grants a larger win percentage overall. That was one purpose of this thread. To show that sacrificing cop for the town leads to wins more often than not, and if cop doesn't die then you can play as normally. Hypos are just something to add, they are not meant to replace already established customs.
deletedover 9 years
however your idea is bad because all hypoing does is narrow down the real cop, and nothing else
deletedover 9 years

Kellyn says

The purpose for the hypo is to create a larger win percentage for town overall. So, put simply, a hypo sacrifices a small % chance of cop living to gain a larger chance of winning when he does die. Using hypos helps to win the game more often, at the expense of the cop's life (which should be negligible considering he still wins dead)


u do realize the setup is already 53% town wins, if you make a setup too town sided it will be unplayable since no one will play it since they know if they flip mafia they're going to lose more often than not.
over 9 years
The purpose for the hypo is to create a larger win percentage for town overall. So, put simply, a hypo sacrifices a small % chance of cop living to gain a larger chance of winning when he does die. Using hypos helps to win the game more often, at the expense of the cop's life (which should be negligible considering he still wins dead)
over 9 years
hypos assume the cop will die. hypo is more likely to out the cop (to die) thus it's self fulfilling in its preaching. overall, it's not worth it.
over 9 years
In the interest in discussing hypos here, and not a particular game, I would ask that Dubbun pm me to continue this.

Anyways, I am glad that my message reached someone. I was expecting these to not be well received simply because people don't want to understand, but I am only interested in those that do wish to understand.
over 9 years
Not all Cop counter-claims are scum, this is validated by the existence of hypo claiming in the first place. The fact the Cop reacted simply meant her risk had failed.

There is no guarantee that the players in Fancy Pants will be informed. There is even less guarantee when these kind of tactics are made more obscure by smegheads downvoting them into oblivion.
over 9 years

Kellyn says

Dibbun, if I were given time I would've retracted. That is a separate strategy. That game was one of many scenarios that is included in variance. Also, the real cop made a false statement, which is the real reason that game went sour, as that is illegal, and GT.


The damage was done, you provoked a reaction from the real cop, outting him to the maf so he could be killed n2, as he was. He did not make a false statement as from his point of view you were scum since you claimed cop. You're the one who gamethrew, not him.
over 9 years
Twist, care to explain?
deletedover 9 years
Wrong.
over 9 years
Dibbun, if I were given time I would've retracted. That is a separate strategy. That game was one of many scenarios that is included in variance. Also, the real cop made a false statement, which is the real reason that game went sour, as that is illegal, and GT.
over 9 years

Devante says

actually, victor, you're wrong. Devante took the stance he has taken on all of your threads and he takes on every thread that the op decides to spew crap no one cares about and that stance is to poop on the thread without actually reading the walls of text in the op




I care about it. off.
over 9 years
oh and you also claimed pr the next day as a blue. https://epicmafia.com/report/138309
over 9 years

Kellyn says

True, and I love how the 2 voters didn't leave any reasons, probably because they didn't read, or they just troll.


I didn't leave a reason because I remember being in a game with you yesterday where you hypo'd by yourself and provoked a reaction from the cop saying you were scum (for claiming cop), getting him killed and you lynched as a blue the next day. Then you reported him for gamethrowing for saying you were scum. Please keep your ridiculous "strategies" to yourself.
deletedover 9 years
actually, victor, you're wrong. Devante took the stance he has taken on all of your threads and he takes on every thread that the op decides to spew crap no one cares about and that stance is to poop on the thread without actually reading the walls of text in the op
over 9 years
True, and I love how the 2 voters didn't leave any reasons, probably because they didn't read, or they just troll.
over 9 years
People who play Fancy Pants do read the forum, it's just that Devante doesn't want to associate with people who have different opinions.
over 9 years
I put this up there for those that care. I thought I might share my finds, and how the people are not playing optimally simply because of human nature.

Victoria, you are correct. I mentioned that in my post.
deletedover 9 years
considering no one who plays fancy pants/classic mafia regularly frequents the forums; you wasted all that time typing up this essay for no reason, congratulations.
over 9 years
No one cares about fancy pants statistic since it s point farm not even fun most of times :P
over 9 years
Should be careful when claiming a guilty report. Should you die and you did not anticipate they weren't Mafia, town could suspect that you, having pointed a guilty at this person - died because it touched a nerve.

A hypo only protects the Cop under the assumption that they found an innocent, or that someone else double guilts one person.

As a rule, you will still end up in a situation tomorrow where there are two Cop claims and it's lylo.