Sure, banging the bride is fun and games and stuff, but after the banging, what happens to the relationships of the town? Explore the deep and mysterious ways a Bride can propose their love in the all new setup, Love Affair!
If Bride is killed, Bride proposes to mafia, 2/5 Bride proposes to town, 3/5
If Bride proposes to town: If Town is lynched, 1/2, Mafia wins. If Mafia is lynched, proceed into 1/3 successful lynch.
If Bride proposes to mafia, it becomes 4 way no clear. 1/4 chance of winning.
Overall win rate if Bride is killed for town: 2/5 chance of: 2/5 chance of 1/4 win, 3/5 chance of 1/3 win. 2 x 1/4 + 3 x 1/3 = 1.5, then dividing that by 5 gives 30% chance to win if bride is killed.
If Villager is killed:
Brides each propose to villager, revealing both remaining mafia: 1/4 Brides each propose to mafia, revealing both remaining mafia: 1/4. One mafia and one villager revealed, leading into 1/2, 1/2.
If Villager is killed, then the odds of winning become 1/2 chance of autoloss and 1/2 chance of 1/2, making the winrate 75% for this situation.
2/5 30%, 3/5 75%, 3.1/5 = about 60% winrate for town. Rip.
Bride is killed: 2/5
Villager is killed: 3/5
If Bride is killed,
Bride proposes to mafia, 2/5
Bride proposes to town, 3/5
If Bride proposes to town:
If Town is lynched, 1/2, Mafia wins.
If Mafia is lynched, proceed into 1/3 successful lynch.
If Bride proposes to mafia, it becomes 4 way no clear. 1/4 chance of winning.
Overall win rate if Bride is killed for town: 2/5 chance of: 2/5 chance of 1/4 win, 3/5 chance of 1/3 win. 2 x 1/4 + 3 x 1/3 = 1.5, then dividing that by 5 gives 30% chance to win if bride is killed.
If Villager is killed:
Brides each propose to villager, revealing both remaining mafia: 1/4
Brides each propose to mafia, revealing both remaining mafia: 1/4. One mafia and one villager revealed, leading into 1/2, 1/2.
If Villager is killed, then the odds of winning become 1/2 chance of autoloss and 1/2 chance of 1/2, making the winrate 75% for this situation.
2/5 30%, 3/5 75%, 3.1/5 = about 60% winrate for town. Rip.