you throw out all these random percentages now as if i was supposed to sit in the game with a calculator in order to figure out every scenario and average it out in order to find mafia like you're PSYCHO LOL

To rephrase it, his choice helped to guarantee a loss when not making that action would guarantee a win.

Literally, why risk losing more than half the time when odds are you lose zero percent of the time?

No, it's marked as bad play because that's what it is. He could have jail killed mafia, and he would have won. The action didn't lose the game, the choice of target did. And since there was no investigative role, the choice of target was never cleared or confirmed mafia, and he wasn't playing against wincon by jailing them.

BSM why would you take a 33% chance of winning over possibly 100%? It is ludicrous to believe that.

"33% chance of winning is a chance of winning."

At that point, it couldn't get below 33% chance of winning. He chose the minimum success option in this scenario.

So, is it only marked as bad play because of intent? Or is it because it isn't on the forum thread? Either way, I gave obvious reasons as to why not jailkilling was better than jailkilling. He even agreed to it.

Going solo before waiting for 3-way reduced his chances of winning by 50-66%, so the fact stands is that he purposefully disregarded the odds just to try to build his ego with a win (look how that worked out)

33% chance of winning is a chance of winning. That's still playing to his wincon.