Probability for perfect maf team31

RandomGuy33mon 23d

in 12p classical gas, these are the probabilities for the perfect maf team. 1/44 chance for the 3rds to be angel and sidekick. 3/12 chance for angel to be on mafia. 1/96 chance for mafias to be poisoner, hitman, and any other maf. 1 in 24 chance that mafia wont kill angel or sidekick, and kills a town instead. 1 in 9 chance for granny to be 1 of the towns 1 in 9 chance that granny is killed 1 in 18 chance that priest is killed and converts maf to traitors. all of these have to go well for the mafia winning day 1. some of these statistics may or may not be wrong.

SirAmelioNov 13, 2020
some of these are definitely wrong lol to calculate the chances of two specific thirds happening w unique roles you need to do

1/(amount of 3rds) * 1/(amount of 3rds-1)

so in this case

1/22 * 1/21 which gives us a 0,02ish chance rather than the 0,2 from 1/44

similar calculation w mafia

1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46
AlyssaNov 13, 2020
Perfect maf team has gotta he Tailor Forger and Vent. Cover all 3 bases of deception.

Though if we want high kill volume, Illu Poisoner Fab
AlyssaNov 13, 2020
I’ve been in a game with silencer fiddler and gator before. Pain.
AsheNov 13, 2020
i wish you could do the probability of me not getting a boyfriend that ignores me :^(
SirAmelioNov 13, 2020!
so yeah following this setup which is the current 7 3 2 pinned:

1/22 * 1/21 (2 thirds) * 1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46 (3 maf) * 1/65 * 1/64 * 1/63 * 1/62 * 1/61 * 1/60 * 1/59 (7 towns)

which is a number insanely low but whatever that is is the actual probability of a setup happening -- of course assuming a) no player has increased role probability b) it was actually random and not pseudo-random like computers do

(also i might be off base, but i believe this is true, if someone disagrees with this method id be interested in hearing about it since i have a statistics final in like a month and could use help lmfao)
SirAmelioNov 13, 2020
math aside, best maf team is Poisoner and Hitman 100% for sure so i agree with you there, and the third i'd leave it up for debate between Yakuza, Stalker or Associate, though there are probably some combos that would make it even better probably such as the one sand mentioned
asyncNov 14, 2020
@SirAmelio wrong
SirAmelioNov 14, 2020
would you mind explaining why
FBKfoxNov 14, 2020 this town is definitely up there.
plokNov 17, 2020
would you mind explaining why
if you take your thirds maths for example, its not 1/22 * 1/21 cause that assumes you always pick one first and not the other. The combos of third1+third2 being rolled and third2+third1 being rolled are different. You want to be dealing with binomial coefficients
blacksnakemoanNov 17, 2020
if a sandbox user is in the game the probability for a perfect maf team is 25% where a perfect maf team is equal to a maf team consisting of at least one sandboxer.

if the game is played in sandbox, the likelihood of a perfect maf team is therefore 100%, as there will always be one sandboxer on the maf team
did these statistics interest you?