## Probability for perfect maf team31

in 12p classical gas, these are the probabilities for the perfect maf team. 1/44 chance for the 3rds to be angel and sidekick. 3/12 chance for angel to be on mafia. 1/96 chance for mafias to be poisoner, hitman, and any other maf. 1 in 24 chance that mafia wont kill angel or sidekick, and kills a town instead. 1 in 9 chance for granny to be 1 of the towns 1 in 9 chance that granny is killed 1 in 18 chance that priest is killed and converts maf to traitors. all of these have to go well for the mafia winning day 1. some of these statistics may or may not be wrong.

some of these are definitely wrong lol to calculate the chances of two specific thirds happening w unique roles you need to do

1/(amount of 3rds) * 1/(amount of 3rds-1)

so in this case

1/22 * 1/21 which gives us a 0,02ish chance rather than the 0,2 from 1/44

similar calculation w mafia

1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46

1/(amount of 3rds) * 1/(amount of 3rds-1)

so in this case

1/22 * 1/21 which gives us a 0,02ish chance rather than the 0,2 from 1/44

similar calculation w mafia

1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46

so yeah following this setup which is the current 7 3 2 pinned: https://epicmafia.com/setup/1563471

1/22 * 1/21 (2 thirds) * 1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46 (3 maf) * 1/65 * 1/64 * 1/63 * 1/62 * 1/61 * 1/60 * 1/59 (7 towns)

which is a number insanely low but whatever that is is the actual probability of a setup happening -- of course assuming a) no player has increased role probability b) it was actually random and not pseudo-random like computers do

(also i might be off base, but i believe this is true, if someone disagrees with this method id be interested in hearing about it since i have a statistics final in like a month and could use help lmfao)

1/22 * 1/21 (2 thirds) * 1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46 (3 maf) * 1/65 * 1/64 * 1/63 * 1/62 * 1/61 * 1/60 * 1/59 (7 towns)

which is a number insanely low but whatever that is is the actual probability of a setup happening -- of course assuming a) no player has increased role probability b) it was actually random and not pseudo-random like computers do

(also i might be off base, but i believe this is true, if someone disagrees with this method id be interested in hearing about it since i have a statistics final in like a month and could use help lmfao)

if a sandbox user is in the game the probability for a perfect maf team is 25% where a perfect maf team is equal to a maf team consisting of at least one sandboxer.

if the game is played in sandbox, the likelihood of a perfect maf team is therefore 100%, as there will always be one sandboxer on the maf team

if the game is played in sandbox, the likelihood of a perfect maf team is therefore 100%, as there will always be one sandboxer on the maf team

did these statistics interest you?