if i understood it correctly you are offering a strategy that guarantees a 30% town winrate :D dude i can assure you i can hard claim mafia every game and get a better winrate than that. dont get me wrong your calculations are probably correct, but why would anyone choose to be satisfied with 30% winrate. the problem is evident, your first predefined rule ''Every shot and lynch is random.'' for these calculations SHOULD NEVER be met, that is all