Always Policy Lynch26

shady2mon 16d

I am supposed to be working and not procrastinating so here is my mathematical theory on policy in guns and hookers. The most common scenario this occurs in is with cop dead.

Here are the pure probabilities of town win vs. mafia win with the following very large caveats:

  1. Every shot and lynch is random.
  2. Gunsmith gunned alive.
  3. Mafia always hides gun.
  4. Gunsmith always guns in 4way.
  5. Hooker always hooks gunsmith if both are alive.

Without policy:

  • Town wins 24.27% of the time [1165/4800]
  • Mafia wins 75.73% of the time [3635/4800]

With policy:

  • Town wins 30.99% of the time [119/384]
  • Mafia wins 69.01% of the time [265/384]

Further breakdowns:

  • Without policy & villager hooked = 27.5% town win
  • Without policy & gunsmith hooked = 14.58% town win
  • With policy & villager hooked = 36.45% town win
  • With policy & gunsmith hooked = 14.58% town win

As you can see, the main reason policy is effective is that it's more likely that villager is hooked than gunsmith. If gunsmith is hooked then you are at the same odds either way. So never scumhunt and just use policy and you will increase your random win odds by almost 6 percent!

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PatrykSzczescieMar 12, 2019!
Oh sorry, I missed the detail with cop dying N1, my questions are stupid, except for one: does GS say who's going to be gunned on N2 or not? If GS says, it might be more optimal for mafia to kill the gunned town unless there's still policy on D2.
PatrykSzczescieMar 12, 2019
deleted
shadyMar 12, 2019
VanityPrime
GS is alive, and they policy, and mafia is gunned, then the random assumption is incorrect, because mafia will reveal the gun and shoot GS, leading to statistically better outcome in the case of policy.
In my "model" (lol) mafia just takes the lynch and doesn't use gun. If you reveal the gun and shoot gs I doubt it would improve mafia's odds. It certainly wouldn't if nilla is being lynched. If hooker is being lynched it might but I scrapped the original document I had made so I would have to rework it to figure out the difference. I probably will since a few people are asking for the methodology.
VanityPrimeMar 12, 2019
shady
In my "model" (lol) mafia just takes the lynch and doesn't use gun. If you reveal the gun and shoot gs I doubt it would improve mafia's odds. It certainly wouldn't if nilla is being lynched. If hooker is being lynched it might but I scrapped the original document I had made so I would have to rework it to figure out the difference. I probably will since a few people are asking for the methodology.
I mean, if you don't want to remake it, I can just do it in SAS and post it, however I don't think people want to download a 10mb gretl file breaking up the probabilities of each choice.
PatrykSzczescieMar 14, 2019
When there's no policy, does it mean that town always lynches outside the possibly gunned person or that it includes the gunned one?
shadyMar 14, 2019
PatrykSzczescie
When there's no policy, does it mean that town always lynches outside the possibly gunned person or that it includes the gunned one?
includes gunned one

No More Scumhunting!

Always policy!
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